McCain beating Obama in state by state analysis

Washington Times:

Sen. John McCain would have an easier time beating Sen. Barack Obama than Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton in this fall's presidential race, according to an analysis conducted by Karl Rove, President Bush's former political strategist.

In fact, the nationwide analysis of state polls shows that in a head-to-head matchup, the Arizona Republican would be just nine electoral votes short of the 270 needed to win the presidency. Mr. Obama was 75 votes from the magic number.

Seven weeks ago, the same compilation of state polls put the Illinois Democrat ahead of Mr. McCain 228-204, with the rest of the available electoral votes in the "tossup" pile, as about a dozen states had poll margins of less than 3 percentage points.

"In the seven weeks leading into Pennsylvania, Obama began to lose support among working-class Democrats and Catholics, two groups critical to any Democrat's victory in November," Mr. Rove said yesterday.

"And then his comment assailing rural and small-town voters as 'clinging' to guns, faith and xenophobia cemented in the minds of many voters the notion he was hostile to Middle America and an elitist. All these hurt his competitive position versus McCain, while helping boost Clinton's," he said.

...

Rove obviously knows how to count votes. But, as his analysis shows, the snap shot keeps changing with events, but the recent momentum has been with McCain mainly because of Obama's meltdown.

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