The McCain advantage

Washington Times:

McCainocrats vs. Obamacans?

The two new political demographics — like Soccer moms and NASCAR dads before them — are quickly emerging as the potential election-busters of the 2008 presidential race.

And contrary to conventional wisdom, numbers emerging from polls and primary results show that Sen. John McCain — who has alienated conservatives as he courts independents and moderate Democrats — holds an advantage over Sen. Barack Obama in the race for crossover votes.

There are now more McCainocrats than Obamacans — about 14 percent of Democrats say they would vote for Mr. McCain today instead of Mr. Obama, but just 8 percent of Republicans say they would vote for the Illinois Democrat, according to a Pew Research Center survey on Feb. 28.

Additionally, 20 percent of white Democratic voters say they would defect to Mr. McCain if Mr. Obama is the Democratic Party's nominee — twice the number who would cross over if Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton wins the nomination, Pew found.

"McCain poses a clear and present danger to Obama in that he draws Democrat base support in historic numbers," said Republican strategist Scott Reed.

While Mrs. Clinton would draw far fewer Republican crossover voters and is making little effort to do so, Mr. Obama — who leads in the delegate race for the nomination — is making no bones about courting members of the other party. He tells a story at nearly every campaign event about Republicans quietly supporting him, which always draws guffaws from his partisan crowd.

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I am not sure how this squares with polls showing both Democrats beating McCain. It does give him something to work with this fall which ever Democrat comes out on top. If they are both on the ticket they may just ratchet up the negatives.