Logical deductions at issue in Irainian involvement in Iraq

NY Times:

Bush administration officials, intelligence analysts and some leading Democrats in Congress all agree that a particularly lethal class of roadside bomb is killing American troops at an increasing rate. But fissures have emerged as to whether senior leaders of Iran’s government are directly involved in the attacks.

The disagreements have laid bare a fundamental tension in intelligence analysis: how and when to draw firm conclusions from battlefield intelligence about the motivations of foreign leaders.

Based on evidence gathered inside Iraq, American intelligence analysts have concluded that a branch of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps known as the Quds Force is supplying Shiite groups with Iranian-designed weapons, called explosively formed penetrators.

Because the Quds Force, which operates outside Iran, has historically fallen under the command of Iran’s senior religious leaders, intelligence agencies have concluded that top leaders in Tehran are directing the attacks. Adding to that view is the assertion by intelligence officials that Iran has been arming and training Shiite militants for several years.

“Based on our understanding of the Iranian system and the history of I.R.G.C. operations, the intelligence community assesses that activity this extensive on the part of the Quds Force would not be conducted without approval from top leaders in Iran,” a senior intelligence official said, referring to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Intelligence officials have cast this view as an “assessment,” a logical inference based on years of studying the Revolutionary Guard.

But some senior American officials are hesitant to make this deductive leap. Twice during his recent trip through Asia, Gen. Peter Pace, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, broke with military officials in Baghdad and said he was not ready to conclude that Iran’s top leaders were behind the attacks.

...

Tony Snow, the White House spokesman, tried to paper over the apparent disagreement on Tuesday. Mr. Snow disclosed that he had called General Pace on the matter and that he and the general were “on the same page” with regard to Iran’s role in the roadside bomb attacks in Iraq.

“Do we have a signed piece of paper from Mr. Khamenei or from President Ahmadinejad signing off on this?” Mr. Snow asked, referring to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran’s president. “No. But are the Quds Forces part of the army — part of the government? The answer is yes.”

One of the ways you can tell the angry left has been stung is their angry reaction to stories that disclose evidence of Iran's bad conduct in Iraq. One of the authors of this story and an earlier story in the Times on these weapons if Michael Gordon who has written a critical book about the war called Cobra II. He is certainly no shill for the administration, but you would not know that from the criticism he has received from the left for giving a factual presentation of the evidence.

I think that in this case Gen. Pace is being a little legalistic. The evidence is pretty convincing that a decision has been made in Iran to supply weapons to those trying to kill our forces in Iraq. What he is apparently looking for is a copy of the signed order from Ahmadinejad. He can only get that by capturing Iran an instituting regime change, or finding someone to sell us a copy.

But there is other evidence that the regime is involved. The Austrian sniper rifles purchased by Iran have been used to kill American. These were for police and not for the Revolutionary Guard. It would take more than a few rogue elements to get the weapons into Iraq where about 12 percent of the original shipment has been captured.