Islamist rout continues as they leave Kismayo

AP/Washington Times:

Islamist fighters abandoned the last major town they held early today and were seen heading south toward the Kenyan border while government forces approached slowly because of land mines, residents and a government spokesman said.
The Islamist forces began to disintegrate after a night of artillery attacks at the front line and following a mutiny within its ranks, witnesses said. Government spokesman Abdirahman Dinari said he had information that Islamist forces were moving south toward the Kenyan border.
"The Islamists have fled Kismayu, and our troops are on the way," Mr. Dinari said.
Leila Ali, a local radio journalist, confirmed that forces of the Islamic Courts Union had left the city and that no guerrillas were on the streets.
Yesterday in Kismayu, Somalia's third-largest city, an estimated 3,000 Islamist fighters were preparing for a bloody showdown, but guerrilla Rabi Ahmed told the Associated Press that about 50 militiamen in the city were refusing to go to the front and fight.
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"My fighters will defeat the Ethiopians forces," Sheik Ahmed Mohamed Islan, the head of the Islamist movement in the Kismayuo region, said by telephone. "Even if we are defeated, we will start an insurgency. We will kill every Somali that supports the government and Ethiopians."
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A later AP/Washington Post report says the Islamist have started looting their own warehouses.

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Hundreds of gunmen, who apparently deserted from the Islamic movement, began looting the warehouses where the Council of Islamic Courts had stored supplies, including weapons and ammunition.

Gangs skirmished in the streets and the city was descending into chaos, businessman Sheik Musa Salad said.

"Everything is out of control, everyone has a gun and gangs are looting everything now that the Islamists have left," he said.

Prime Minister Ali Mohamed Gedi offered amnesty to hundreds of Islamic fighters if they gave themselves up, but made no such offer to leaders of the group.

"I can confirm to you that our forces have captured Kismayo," Gedi said following a 13-day onslaught against the Islamic forces.

He also ordered a countrywide disarmament that goes into effect Tuesday, an immense task in Somalia, which is awash with weapons after a 15-year civil war.

"The warlord era in Somalia is now over," Gedi said at a news conference in the recently captured capital, Mogadishu, giving a three-day deadline for the handover of all weapons.

Among those sought were three al-Qaida suspects wanted in the 1998 bombings of U.S. embassies who were being sheltered by the Islamic group. The government hoped to catch them before they slipped out of the country.

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The Islamic forces have a base near the Kenyan border on a small peninsula called Ras Kamboni, where there is a pier and traditional oceangoing boats known as dhows. Ethiopian MiG fighter jets flew low over the ocean looking for boats that might be carrying the escaping Islamic fighters.

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This report from the LA Times gets the picture pretty well:

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Most are quitting," Dinari said earlier. "They're trapped. We want to clean this up as quickly as possible."

Tough-talking Islamists, who said they abandoned Mogadishu to avoid civilian casualties, said they would not to give up as easily this time. But the vow proved hollow.

In a telephone interview from Jilib, Sheik Mohammed Ibrahim Suley, a spokesman for the Islamic courts, said alliance fighters would soon rise up in all parts of Somalia.

"The enemy will not rest," he said.

Islamic fighters, estimated to number 500 to 2,000, regrouped near Kismayo, hiding in sparsely populated areas near the border with Kenya, officials and witnesses said.

About 70 foreign fighters are believed to be among them, including three suspects in the U.S. Embassy bombing attacks in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998, government officials said Sunday. At least one of the suspects reportedly was being treated for injuries in a Kismayo hospital.

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The hollow bombast will probably continue. While the leaders of the Islamist would probably like to lead a broad based attack in every part of Somalia, their retreat to an isolated part of the country will make that impracticable at this point. Now they are desperately leaving their last strong hold and will be bumping up against the Kenya border and the sea soon. They are unlikely to find a sanctuary like the Pakistan tribal areas to sustain their awful group.

Bill Roggio interviews a professor in contact with the Ethiopian government about the latest Islamist retreat.

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"They first thought they could escape to Kenya because the ethnic Somalis in Kenya were sympathetic to them, but the Kenyan government immediately closed its border. Then they thought they could flee by taking boats to Eritrea but the American warships blocked that escape route," said Dr. Abdiweli Ali, a professor at Niagra Universery who is in contact with the Ethiopian government, in an interview with us.

"The Kenyan government said it closed its border with Somalia to intercept the Islamist leaders who abandoned their last stronghold of Kismayo, trying to enter Kenya," Shabelle confirms.

The Islamic Courts leaders have repeatedly stated they would begin an insurgency. The TFG and Ethiopians must kill or capture the Islamic Courts and al-Qaeda leadership to prevent an insurgency or decrease its effectiveness. The Islamic Courts decision to engage the Ethiopian forces at Jilib must be viewed as a holding action to allow the leadership to escape.

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Kenya has a lot of reasons to keep the Islamist out, especially those responsible for the embassy bombings. Roggio makes a good point about the strategic box the Islamist have put themselves in as their avenue of retreat keeps shrinking with each move south and east. They will be running out of places to run to soon.