NATO doubts Taliban have capacity for big offensive

AP/ Washington Post:

Taliban militants are expected to step up their attacks in Afghanistan soon, but the militia has lost strength and does not have the capability to launch a "spring offensive," a NATO spokesman said Wednesday.

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NATO spokesman Brig. Gen. Richard Nugee said Wednesday, however, that it will be NATO troops who will be launching the real offensive, referring to upcoming military operations but giving no details.

"We do not believe that there will be a spring offensive by the Taliban," Nugee said. "There will be an upward surge in violence as the weather gets better ... I don't think it will amount to an offensive. An offensive is a very symbolic phrase, it means a huge upsurge in a very short amount of time. We just don't think that will happen."

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The Taliban suffered unsustainable casualties in last years offensive. It appears that it will concentrate on human bomb attacks that give more bang per buck. When it attempted to mass forces last year, almost all of them were destroyed. A typical pattern would be an attempted ambush that would deteriorate into a Taliban retreat into an area where its forces would be hit by an air attack killing most of the fighters. At best the Taliban were a poorly trained light infantry force trying to fight modern disciplined forces with combined arms assets. In almost every case of contact, the Taliban were routed or destroyed.