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Iran's game

Ralph Peters:

THE seizure of eight British servicemen by Iran's Revolutionary Guards isn't about a border violation. It's meant to test the Coalition in Iraq, punish Britain for criticizing Tehran's nuclear quest — and recharge domestic support for Iran's hardliners.

Those eight hostages are pawns in a great strategic game for stakes far beyond the minor scale of the incident itself. Iran's hardliners are gambling. If the West — with London in the lead this time — fails to call their bluff, our weakness will virtually guarantee future conflict in the Persian Gulf.

Grabbing those British sailors and marines from three patrol boats they were delivering to Iraqi border guards wasn't an Iranian reaction to poor navigation. The seizure appears to have been planned and blessed by hardline leaders. It's a repertoire play, an attempt by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps — now a sprawling empire of repression — to recreate its greatest success on the world stage, the seizure of American embassy personnel a quarter-century ago.

Even if the hostages have been released by the time you read this, the provocation offers us insight into today's divided Iran.

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There's a colossal disconnect just now between the way we see the situation in the Middle East and the way our enemies view it. We think we're doing OK, more or less, kinda-sorta. But they're convinced, in the wake of our recent displays of indecision, that the tide has turned, that we can be defeated.

At some point, we'll have to stop running away from our enemies and take a stand. If the Coalition's leaders were wise, this hostage situation would be that point.

But as of late even President Bush has begun to resemble Bill Clinton — always willing to say the words, but without the guts for a fight.

This seemingly minor event may be a historic turning point — although we might not realize it for years. With our short memories, we forget how many of history's most brutal conflicts began with minor naval incidents. Seizing or striking isolated vessels has long been a means of testing a potential opponent's will. The Iranian hardliners are playing an age-old hand.

Meanwhile, the Revolutionary Guards are really holding two separate groups of hostages: Eight British servicemen. And the entire population of Iran. Now they hope to make the Coalition a political hostage. Let's hope Tony Blair gets this one right.