Russian Black Sea fleet degraded, unable to defend itself

 Business Insider:

Ukraine's military has beefed up its attacks against Russia's Black Sea Fleet, causing more destruction than ever, British intelligence said on Tuesday.

The Russian naval fleet based in the occupied Crimean Peninsula has been hit by a series of major attacks by Ukrainian forces, including missile strikes on the Black Sea Fleet's headquarters in Sevastopol last week.

"These attacks have been more damaging and more coordinated than thus far" in Russian President Vladimir Putin's grinding 19-month-long war against Ukraine, the UK's Ministry of Defense said in a daily intelligence update.

The physical damage done to Russia's Black Sea Fleet was described by British intelligence as "almost certainly severe but localized."

"The fleet almost certainly remains capable of fulfilling its core wartime missions of cruise missile strikes and local security patrols," the UK intelligence group said.

However, according to the intel, Moscow's fleet is probably losing its ability to defend itself.

It's likely that the Russian fleet's ability "to continue wider regional security patrols and enforce its de facto blockade of Ukrainian ports will be diminished," said the UK's Ministry of Defense.

The fleet also likely has a "degraded ability to defend its assets in port and to conduct routine maintenance," intelligence said.

"A dynamic, deep strike battle is underway in the Black Sea," the UK intelligence group said. "This is likely forcing Russia into a reactive posture whilst demonstrating that Ukraine's military can undermine the Kremlin's symbolic and strategic power projection from its warm water port in occupied Sevastopol."
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The fleet has been remarkably vulnerable to Ukraine attacks using both missiles and drones.  When you consider the cost of the Ukraine weapons versus the cost of Russian ships, Ukraine is creating substantial damage at a low cost.  The attacks have also exposed the lack of an effective aerial defense by the Russians.

See, also:

US-made ATACMS cluster missiles could give Ukraine's HIMARS the power to punish Russia's artillery and 'cut off' its army, former US artillery officer says

Ukrainian forces are increasingly using long-range cruise missiles to pound high-value Russian positions far behind the war's front lines. It has only a limited supply of these weapons, but Kyiv has its eyes set on the US-provided MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) to help it keep up the pressure on high-value targets in the rear.

It hasn't yet been announced, but the Biden administration has agreed to send ATACMS to Ukraine, according to multiple reports. The exact variant Kyiv's forces might receive is, however, unclear. A former US artillery officer says the M39, an older but still deadly long-range cluster missile packed with hundreds of explosive submunitions, is a likely choice and could allow Ukraine to isolate the Russian army on the occupied Crimean peninsula and hammer its artillery — potentially without having to liberate more territory first.

"You don't have to take the ground to prevent the Russians from being able to use it," Dan Rice, who previously served as a special advisor to Ukraine's military leadership, told Insider. Rice has lobbied for Washington to send cluster munitions since July 2022, and his efforts have also focused on cluster rockets and missiles.
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And:

 It only took 12 Ukrainians with drones to destroy $80 million of Russian military equipment

And:

 A Ukrainian drone took out two Russian tanks and a piece of artillery in a single night, Ukraine says

And:

 Ukrainian soldier says Russia is leaving booby traps on the bodies of its own soldiers in the hope they will kill advancing Ukrainians

And:

 Ukrainian children as young as 4 months old are being forcibly taken to Russia. Officials don't know what is happening to them.

And:

 Russian soldiers captured a Ukrainian exploding drone — then it blew up and killed several of them: report

And ISW reports on ethnic tensions within the Russian army: 

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Interethnic tensions appear to be sowing division between elements of the Russian 42nd Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment defending against the Ukrainian counteroffensive in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Arsen Temiraev, a mobilized serviceman from the Republic of North Ossetia-Alania serving with the 70th Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment, posted a video on September 25 alleging that Russian military police of the 70th Regiment beat Temiraev and two other soldiers of the 71st Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment’s 3rd Battalion in Tokmak on September 24.[14] Temiraev claimed that the military police asked about his ethnicity before telling Temiraev that “Russia is for Russians.” Temiraev claimed that the military police beat him and the other servicemen because a Tokmak local alleged that the soldiers had sexually assaulted children, a crime that Temiraev denied having committed. Temiraev complained that he thought the “Nazis were on the other [Ukrainian] side, [but] it turns out they [the Nazis] are among us.”[15] North Ossetian-Alanian Republic Head Sergey Menyailo responded on September 26, claiming that the elements of the “Storm Ossetia” and “Alania” volunteer battalions in the area verified the incident.[16] Menyailo reported the incident to the Southern Military District command, which informed the commander of the 58th Combined Arms Army, and called the incident unacceptable towards any Russian soldier. Interethnic tensions between Russian units operating in the frontline and near the rear of western Zaporizhia Oblast may threaten the integrity of Russian defenses and unit cohesion amidst recent Ukrainian gains in the area.

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