Organized crime becomes fifth largest employer in Mexico

 The Guardian:

Organised crime groups in Mexico have about 175,000 members – making them the fifth-biggest employer in the country, according to new research published in the journal Science.

Related: Son of Joaquin ‘El Chapo’ Guzman extradited to the US for drug trafficking

Using a decade of data on homicides, missing persons and incarcerations, as well as information about interactions between rival factions, the paper published on Thursday mathematically modeled overall cartel membership, and how levels of violence would respond to a range of policies.

The authors argue that the best way to reduce the bloodshed would be to cut cartel recruitment – whereas locking up more members would actually increase the murder rate.

“More than 1.7 million people in Latin America are incarcerated, and adding more people to saturated jails will not solve the insecurity problem,” wrote the authors.

The number of homicides in Mexico more than tripled between 2007 and 2021 – when the government reported 34,000 victims, or nearly 27 victims for every 100,000 inhabitants – making it one of the deadliest countries in Latin America.

At a national level, two organised crime groups – the Sinaloa cartel and the Jalisco New Generation cartel – battle for domination. But analysts have identified 198 armed groups in Mexico, many of which are subcontractors to bigger players but also undertake local turf disputes.
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The cartels appear more powerful than the government at this point.  The government appears to recognize the problem but has not developed an effective response to date. 

See, also:

How many people work for the Mexican drug cartels? Researchers have an answer

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Though cartels have been chronicled in television series, books and high-profile criminal cases, much about them remains unknown. Estimates of annual profits start at $6 billion and spiral upward.

And cartels long ago branched beyond drug trafficking into other lucrative rackets, including extortion, kidnapping, fuel theft and migrant smuggling. That implies a vast economy — and a huge labor force.
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