Ukraine using long range missiles?
It all started on Aug. 9 with an attack on Saki Air Base in Russian-occupied Crimea, at least 140 miles behind the Russian front line. Satellite imagery released the next day revealed a scene of utter devastation, with at least nine Russian warplanes completely destroyed and many others rendered not airworthy. One Western intelligence official later claimed the attack had "put more than half of Russia's Black Sea Fleet naval aviation combat jets out of use," which would raise the total number of destroyed or damaged aircraft to at least 13, as there were 26 aircraft at the base prior to the attack.
The second confirmed hit took place exactly one week later, on Aug. 16, when a Russian munitions depot exploded dramatically near Dzhankoi, in northern Crimea, some 120 miles behind the front line. An electricity substation in the same area was also targeted and destroyed.
Kyiv has been ambiguous about the provenance of these attacks.
At first, the Ukrainian government refused to officially confirm that its military was behind the explosions, mocking Russian claims that Saki Airbase went up in smoke due to an "accident," perhaps related to cigarette smoking in the vicinity of combustible materials. (The Ukrainian defense ministry's Twitter account has continued to lampoon that explanation.)
On background, however, a host of anonymous Ukrainian officials have claimed responsibility and leaked disparate explanations to Western reporters. One told the New York Times on the day of the Saki strike that a "device exclusively of Ukrainian manufacture was used," without specifying what this may have been: a drone, a missile, or some remote-detonated bomb. The next day came the suggestion that Ukrainian Special Forces were responsible; not necessarily at odds with the first accounting, but more suggestive that whatever struck Crimea was not a missile fired from hundreds of miles away.
Finally, on Aug. 20, Ukrainian Defense Secretary Oleksii Reznikov told the Washington Post that the attacks in Crimea were the result of a new strategy to degrade Russian forces by striking deep in the enemy rear. A cadre of saboteurs, a "resistance force," as Reznikov termed it, had been cobbled together in January and were now working in conjunction with Ukrainian Special Forces, targeting ammunition depots, fuel warehouses and Russian command centers.
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"The craters visible in satellite photos are 10 meters across," Chuck Pfarrer, the former squadron leader of Navy SEAL Team 6, told Yahoo News. "And each is consistent with the explosion of at least 500 pounds of C-4. No Special Forces team is going to drag a ton of C-4 to a target when two ounces would be sufficient to destroy an aircraft."
The simultaneity of the explosions also casts suspicion on the claim that timed devices were used to blow up an airfield, Pfarrer added. "Timers are good, but they're not that good."
Another problem with the Special Forces theory is that no gunfire was reported by either unofficial or official Russian sources, or heard on the numerous civilian-shot videos of the airbase attack. Then there was the timing of the attack: at 10 a.m. on a weekday, such that Russian holiday-makers at a nearby beach witnessed the explosions and skedaddled anxiously from their bungalows. Special operations are usually carried out at night, under the cover of darkness to avoid detection by the enemy (think: the SEAL Team 6 raid on Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad).
"This was a missile strike," another former U.S. Special Forces operative, who asked to remain anonymous, said. "Could partisans or special operators have been on the ground reconnoitering the targets for artillery? Sure. But nothing in those images tells me Ukrainians were setting things off at the scene."
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It was likely a long-range missile. However, the US denies providing such missiles to Ukraine. Perhaps they developed their own.
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