California losing population from all demographics
Last Tuesday, the California’s Legislative Analyst Office reported on the 2020 Migration data released by the IRS. The findings have been sending chills through the political class.
While in the past, outmigration tended to be more pronounced among lower-income Californians, in recent years the state has seen an increase in net outflows across all income brackets. Historically, upticks in outmigration have been associated with periods of rapid increases in cost of living.
Recently, the IRS released new data on taxpayer migration during the first year of the pandemic (2020). These data show that the state had a net outflow of about 260,000 taxpayers (0.8% of all taxpayers) in 2020, up from about 165,000 (0.5%) in 2019. The forgone state income tax collections associated with this net outmigration likely represent a bit over one percent of total state income tax revenues. This is about double the amount of forgone revenues associated with outmigration in 2019.
District 6 Assemblyman and Congressional candidate Kevin Kiley (R-Rockin) mentioned this in his blog, noting the numbers on internal migration in the state from lockdown counties like Los Angeles to the more free and independent counties that rejected Governor Gavin Newsom’s emergency declarations and COVID theater and instead chose to sign on to the Health Communities Resolution introduced by Kiley and fellow Assemblyman James Gallagher (R-Yuba City). This Resolution calls for local control of matters that concern the livelihood and health of its citizens; that elected officials will work with its people to customize its policies based on science and evidence, not enact a one-size-fits-all approach that has no foundation in real data and elicits more harm than good. Of the 14 or so counties that adopted this Resolution during the pandemic, most are to the North. San Luis Obispo and Orange County were the outliers.
New IRS data shows we just lost 260,000 taxpayers to other states, forfeiting twice as much revenue as any prior year. Clearly, this is not sustainable.
But the same report also revealed migration patterns within California. Just as people are leaving the Lockdown State of California for the Freedom States of Florida, Texas, and Idaho, they are also leaving California’s Lockdown Counties for its Freedom Counties.
Consider the Healthy Communities Counties. These are the counties that passed the Healthy Communities Resolution I wrote with James Gallagher in 2020. The Resolution was a statement of opposition to mandates and an assertion of local control.
Placer and El Dorado passed it first, followed by several North State counties, and eventually, 14 counties throughout California as far south as Orange. (See the Resolution and list of counties here)
According to the IRS data, almost every Healthy Communities County gained population, while hyper-lockdown counties like LA, SF, and Santa Clara hemorrhaged residents. This is truly a bellwether of change.
So soon, all that will be left in Los Angeles County, Santa Clara County, and Sacramento County are the drug-addicted and the mentally ill—housed and unhoused—illegals, and the political class.
Cal Matters also expressed concern that California is losing a substantial number of high-income taxpayers.
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There is much more.
I think much of this migration is a result of Gov. Newsom's reign of error. He has imposed control freak policies and lockdowns closing businesses, schools, and churches while he and the California legislature have engaged in government greed imposing more onerous taxes. There is a reasons why U-Haul is struggling to get trucks for all the people leaving the state.
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