The problem with Russia

 Jacob Fraden:

Russia's bloody and senseless war against Ukraine has been going on for almost six months. Instead of the original goal of quickly seizing Ukraine and turning it into a puppet state or a province (the name "Ukraine" is derived from the Russian word for “outskirts"), Russia has suddenly encountered an impenetrable wall of resistance.

Two questions logically arise: 1) why did Russia attack Ukraine? and 2) how and when will the war end?

Today's Russia is the heir to two political formations: feudal and then capitalist tsarist Russia, which died in 1917, and the communist Soviet Union, which lost the Cold War and disintegrated in 1991. Throughout its millennial history, the Russian Empire and its successor, the Soviet Union, have always aimed at expanding their territory at the expense of foreign lands and establishing control over other countries. At the same time Russia never paid the slightest attention to the development of its internal infrastructure and improving the lives of people. Hence the popular Russian saying: "There are only two problems in Russia: bad roads and fools, where the fools tell people which road to take.”

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After the collapse of the USSR, tens of thousands of highly qualified specialists left the country forever and now the scientific and technical level in Russia is extremely low. The Russian propaganda about "hypersonic” rockets, "nuclear-powered" airplanes, and other fantasy projects is nothing more than fairy tales to be fed to its own naïve population. Russia has lagged behind other developed countries by at least half a century and there is not the slightest chance of catching up.

Russian soldiers are fighting in Ukraine with outdated weapons, 50-60 years old, whose effectiveness is not comparable to those supplied by the US, U.K. and other countries. Nevertheless, they have a huge stockpile of the old-fashioned weapons, and until it runs out, Russia will fight. Everything that Russia has done during its entire history was with a gigantic waste of resources, both human and material, and that is how Russia achieved its goals. Yet, it won't work like that this time: no American lend-lease, no powerful allies. India, Iran, or North Korea don't count. Quantity will not trump quality!

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When the "blitzkrieg" that began on February 24, 2022, completely failed, the purpose for the war urgently had to be modified; now the purpose of the war is the war itself. No longer does Russia need to conquer Donbass or Kiev. — all it needs now is a permanent war. And the longer it lasts, the better for Putin's regime. There is simply no other way for Putin or his cronies to survive: they are no longer able to leave their positions and retire or escape to other countries.

Their situation is utterly hopeless — even in the event of a hypothetical victory over Ukraine, Russia will inevitably collapse, for being under sanctions, its economy will not be able to support occupation of the second largest geographical European country. War is the only "glue" that can hold Russia together for a while. In reality, there is not the slightest chance for Russia to permanently defeat Ukraine. Even a small victory over a single area, if it happens, would only be temporary.

Therefore, for Putin it’s absolutely impossible to end the war — leaving Ukraine without victory means admitting defeat, which his own comrades-in-arms will not forgive. If Putin cannot end the war, then the war must end Putin.

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The war with Ukraine does look idiotic.  Ukraine was never a threat to Russia.  And the war with Ukraine has exposed Russian weakness.  Its conventional military operations have been largely a failure, and its economy is now much weaker.