Russian 'work accident' at base in Crimea or sabotage?

 ISW:

The Ukrainian General Staff made no mention of Izyum in its 1800 situational report on August 9, nor did other prominent Ukrainian sources despite Western sources’ claims of an ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive in this area. This silence represents a noteworthy departure from previous Ukrainian coverage of the Kharkiv-Donetsk axis.

Russian and Ukrainian sources reported a series of large explosions deep within Russian-occupied Kherson Oblast and Crimea on August 9, but Ukrainian officials have not claimed responsibility for them as of the time of this publication. Social media users reported witnessing 12 loud explosions at the Saky airbase in Novofedorivka on the Crimean western coast.[1] Social media footage only showed the large cloud of smoke and the aftermath of the incident.[2] Social media footage also showed a large smoke cloud near Novooleksiivka in Henichensk district, in the vicinity of the Kherson Oblast-Crimean border.[3] Advisor to the Kherson Oblast Administration Serhiy Khlan reported that explosions occurred on the Russian ammunition base but noted that there is no official confirmation of Ukrainian involvement in the incident.[4]

The Russian Defense Ministry claimed that several aircraft munitions detonated in the storage areas of the Saky airbase due to poor fire protocol, rejecting reports that Ukrainian strikes or sabotage at the military facility caused the explosions.[5] The Russian Defense Ministry added that the incident did not result in any casualties or damage to Russian aviation equipment. The Russian Health Ministry claimed that five civilians were wounded in the incident, however.[6] Social media footage also showed firefighters extinguishing a burning plane, which also contradicts the original Russian Defense Ministry claim.[7] Russian-appointed Head of Crimea Sergey Aksyenov claimed that Russian officials are only evacuating a few residents in homes near the airbase, but social media footage showed long traffic jams approaching the Crimean bridge and the departure of several minibusses, reportedly with evacuees.[8] Russian propagandist Margarita Simonyan claimed that the incident was a result of sabotage rather than a missile or rocket strike.[9] Russian milbloggers voiced differing opinions regarding the origin of the strike, with some speculating that Ukrainian forces used US-provided long-range army tactical missile systems (ATACMS).[10] Ukrainian forces do not have the ATACMS systems, however.

The Kremlin has little incentive to accuse Ukraine of conducting strikes that caused the damage since such strikes would demonstrate the ineffectiveness of Russian air defense systems, which the Ukrainian sinking of the Moskva had already revealed. ISW does not yet have any basis independently to assess the precise cause of the explosions. The apparent simultaneity of explosions at two distinct facilities likely rules out the official Russian version of accidental fire, but it does not rule out either sabotage or long-range missile strike. Ukraine could have modified its Neptune missiles for land-attack use (as the Russians have done with both anti-shipping and anti-aircraft missiles), but there is no evidence to support this hypothesis at this time.
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See, also:

 Explosions rock Russian airbase in Crimea

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 "People who are living under occupation understand that the occupation is coming to an end," Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, said when asked about the blasts, suggesting saboteurs may have been responsible.

Podolyak denied Kyiv was responsible for the devastation at the air base.

"Of course not. What do we have to do with this?" Podolyak said when asked if Ukrainian forces played any role in causing the explosions.

Zelensky did not discuss the explosions directly in his nightly address on Tuesday, but he vowed to “liberate” Crimea and said, “This Russian war against Ukraine and against the entire free Europe began with Crimea and must end with Crimea — with its liberation."

“Russia has turned our peninsula, which has always been and will be one of the best places in Europe, into one of the most dangerous places in Europe. But we will return to the Ukrainian Crimea," he added.

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The headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet is near the area where the explosion took place and was recently the subject of a drone attack.   There is a picture in this story in the Washington Examiner which shows smoke rising from the explosion at the base.  The picture appears to be taken from a coastal beach resort.

See, also:

The airfield explosion was the work of Ukrainian special forces, a Ukrainian official said, declining to disclose details on how the attack was carried out.

And:

 Putin loses his 100th colonel as US says 80,000 Russian troops have been either killed or wounded during invasion of Ukraine

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