Russia defenses become more effective against Ukraine drones

 Business Insider:

In the early days of the war in Ukraine, drones emerged as an unexpected source of victory against Russian forces.

Stories of the success dominated the news cycle, played out on multiple video clips widely distributed on social media, and showed Ukraine's drones decimating the chaotic Russian advances.

Ukraine's ad-hoc drone airforce, from small consumer drones typically used for surveillance to the famed Turkish-designed Bayraktar TB2 drones, were credited with eviscerating Putin's tanks and armor.

But Russia has learned from the humiliation by drones in the first months of the invasion. Experts told Insider that the drone wonder weapons are becoming increasingly ineffective because Russia has improved its defense systems and is downing and jamming many of Ukraine's drones.

"What's happening now is that Russia's electronic warfare and air defenses have become better organized and fielded when compared to the earlier months of the war," Samuel Bendett, an analyst and expert in unmanned and robotic military systems, said at the Center for Naval Analysis.

Russian forces are using early warning radars to identify the drones and electronic warfare systems to jam and disrupt their communication, Bendett said.

They also use various weapons like machine guns and air defense systems, such as the Tor missile system, to shoot the drones down.

Recent footage from the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed to show a Krasukha-S4 electronic warfare system in action, taking out a Ukrainian drone.

According to Mark Cancian, an analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Ukraine was previously able to use drones so effectively because Russia had not organized its defense systems.

"Drones were able to play such a role because the Russians were slow to set up an air defense system. They were slow to establish the combined arms operation (armor, infantry, artillery, recon, engineers, air defense) that their doctrine called for," he said.
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The early stages of the Russian war against Ukraine were the result of the Russians underestimating the Ukraine response and overestimating their own capabilities.  The Russians had to catch up to avoid defeat and it appears they are close to doing that.  However, Ukraine has been getting US and other Western weapon systems that make it more competitive.  Ukraine is no longer as reliant on drones as it was in the early phase of the war.