Polling tends to understate GOP advantage in 2022

 Red States:

...

During a segment on Jake Tapper’s “The Lead” program, a very sour-looking Tapper fretted about polling showing a red wave was coming and asked Enten if there was any way the data could actually be underestimating the outlook for one party or the other.

In what we know was a disappointing answer for Tapper, Enten explained that if in fact any underestimating was going on that it would likely be for Republicans:

“So, if we were in fact to say, OK, we think it’s under estimating one side, I would think it would be underestimating Republicans. Here’s why. Take a look at the July 27 House polling versus the November national vote, in midterm cycles where there’s a Democratic president, we’ll go back since 1994, right? And what we see generally we see some blue here, some Democratic leads in 2014 1994, a tie back in 1998, Republicans plus three.

Then look at the November result, in each of these years, the Republicans outperformed their July polling in the November result, and the average shift from the July polling to the November result, an average shift of six points to Republicans. Why might that be? Take a look here, the shift in party identification margin, because remember, it’s not all registered voters were interested in, its actual midterm voters. And if we look at every single election since 1978, with a Democratic president, there has been a shift in the party margin, party ID margin, more Republicans turnout on election day compared to what the actual registered voters are in midterm elections when there’s a Democratic president.”

“So Democrats should be looking at November in sheer terror?” a dejected Tapper wondered.

Enten broke it to him as gently as he could.

“I would not be a big fan of what’s going to happen in November if I were a Democrat, and I had a crystal ball,” Enten answered. “And we can just look at straight history, right, the White House Party loses four or more seats in House midterms since 1870. Thirty-five out of 38 times, that has been the case, the White House Party has lost four or more seats.”

The only time it hasn’t happened, Enten noted, was when the president had a high approval rating going into the midterms.

“And the only times in polling history in which they didn’t, in fact, lose four or more seats, 1998 and 2002, look at the president’s approval rating 64 percent, 66 percent,” Enten said. “Joe Biden’s approval rating at this point, Jake, is just 38 percent. It doesn’t look anything like those years.”

...

Between news of the recession, the continued rise in inflation along with rising interest rates, it’s hard to envision any scenario where Democrats come out of this barely breaking even (though some media outlets are trying really, really hard to spin it otherwise).

...

Save some of your Biden "I did that" stickers for the outcome of the 2022 election because he and the Democrats in Congress are largely responsible for the shellacking that is predicted.