Ukraine troops drive Russians toward border

 ISW:

The Ukrainian counteroffensive northeast of Kharkiv is making significant progress and will likely advance to the Russian border in the coming days or weeks. Russian forces may be conducting a limited withdrawal in the face of successful Ukrainian attacks and reportedly destroyed three bridges to slow the Ukrainian advance. Armies generally only destroy bridges if they have largely decided they will not attempt to cross the river in the other direction anytime soon; Russian forces are therefore unlikely to launch operations to retake the northeast outskirts of Kharkiv liberated by Ukrainian forces in the near future. Russian forces previously destroyed several bridges during their retreat from Chernihiv Oblast—as did Ukrainian forces withdrawing in the face of the Russian offensive in the initial days of the war.

This Ukrainian offensive is likely intended to push Russian forces out of artillery range of Kharkiv city and drive to the border of Russia’s Belgorod Oblast. As ISW previously forecasted, the Ukrainian counteroffensive is forcing Russian units intended for deployment elsewhere to redeploy to the Kharkiv front to halt Ukrainian attacks. Given the current rate of Ukrainian advances, Russian forces may be unable to prevent Ukrainian forces from reaching the Russian border, even with additional reinforcements. Ukrainian forces are not directly threatening Russian lines of communication to Izyum (and ISW cannot verify claims of a separate Ukrainian counteroffensive toward Izyum at this time), but the Ukrainian counteroffensive demonstrates promising Ukrainian capabilities and may set conditions for further offensive operations into northeastern Kharkiv Oblast.

By all indications, Russian forces will announce the creation of a Kherson People’s Republic or possibly forcibly annex Kherson Oblast in the near future and are intensifying occupation measures in Mariupol. Russian forces are reportedly increasing their security presence in both Kherson and Mariupol, including withdrawing personnel from frontline combat units to protect Russian dignitaries in Mariupol. Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Leader Denis Pushilin arrived in Kherson on May 6, and local occupation officials stated the region will “strive to become a subject of Russia” and “will resemble something close to Crimea in terms of the pace of development,” echoing longstanding rhetoric used by Russia’s existing proxies in eastern Ukraine. As ISW has previously assessed, the Kremlin will likely form illegal proxy republics or directly annex occupied areas of southern and eastern Ukraine to cement its occupation administration and attempt to permanently strip these territories from Ukraine.

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Ukrainian forces continued to repel Russian advances toward Barvinvoke (southwest of Izyum) on May 7, and Russian forces have likely abandoned efforts to drive directly southeast toward Slovyansk. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces launched an unsuccessful attack on Virnopillya (approximately 25 km southwest of Izyum) on May 7 and images on social media depicted several destroyed Russian armored vehicles and tanks.[1] Ukrainian forces likely repelled further Russian attacks directly west of Izyum in the villages of Zavody and Velyka Komyshuvakha, as evidenced by drone footage released by Ukrainian forces.[2] Satellite imagery depicted fires just northwest of Izyum on May 6 that may indicate ongoing shelling.[3] However, ISW has not observed any footage or imagery of Ukrainian advances, the Ukrainian General Staff has not claimed any Ukrainian attack toward Izyum, and we cannot confirm at this time if Ukrainian forces are conducting an offensive toward Izyum concurrent with the ongoing offensive around Kharkiv, as discussed below.[4] ISW will continue to monitor the area and provide updates if we obtain concrete indicators of a Ukrainian counteroffensive in this area.

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While Russians continue to try to consolidate gains in Mariupol and some other areas they are clearly on the defensive in many areas and are destroying bridges to try to slow the Ukraine advances that are pushing them toward the border.  The Ukraine offensive appears to foretell further retreats by Russian troops elsewhere.  It will be interesting to see whether Russia further consolidates its forces in areas it still holds.