Ukraine counter offensive threatens Russian artillery
The Ukrainian counteroffensive out of Kharkiv city may disrupt Russian forces northeast of Kharkiv and will likely force Russian forces to decide whether to reinforce positions near Kharkiv or risk losing most or all of their positions within artillery range of the city. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zalyzhnyi stated on May 5 that Ukrainian forces are transitioning to counteroffensive operations around Kharkiv and Izyum, the first direct Ukrainian military statement of a shift to offensive operations. Ukrainian forces did not make any confirmed advances in the last 24 hours but repelled Russian attempts to regain lost positions. Russian forces made few advances in continued attacks in eastern Ukraine, and Ukrainian forces may be able to build their ongoing counterattacks and successful repulse of Russian attacks along the Izyum axis into a wider counteroffensive to retake Russian-occupied territory in Kharkiv Oblast.
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Russian forces continued ineffectual offensive operations in southern Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Luhansk Oblasts without securing any significant territorial gains in the past 24 hours. The Pentagon assessed that Russian forces have not been able to make further advances due to their inability to conduct offensive operations far from their ground lines of communication (GLOCs) along highways, as ISW previously assessed, and muddy terrain.[1] Russian GLOCs supporting the Izyum axis likely run from the Russian border to Kupyansk and Vovchansk, and local Kharkiv civilian authorities reported additional Russian reinforcements moving through these settlements towards the front line as of May 5.[2] Russian forces are reportedly suffering losses in stalled attacks along the Izyum axis, with the Ukrainian General Staff reporting that elements of the 4th Tank Division and the 106th Airborne Division withdrew to Russia after sustaining heavy losses in the past several days.[3]
Russian forces conducted unsuccessful attacks in Lyman, Severodonetsk, and Popasna, and maintained shelling along the line of contact in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts.[4] Russian forces also used thermobaric munitions against Ukrainian positions in Lyman and are unsuccessfully attempting to leverage massed artillery fire to break through Ukrainian defenses.[5] Russian forces targeted grain facilities in Rubizhne and Soledar, a settlement located approximately 30 kilometers from Popasna, likely to deprive Ukrainian forces and civilians of supplies.[6] The Donetsk People’s Republic claimed to have seized Troitske (a village approximately 25 kilometers from occupied Horlivka) on May 5, but social media imagery confirmed that Ukrainian artillery inflicted heavy damage on Russian munitions depots, tanks, and armored personnel carriers in the area.[7]
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The Russians appear to be struggling to hold what they have and lack the combat power to make material advances. They aren't going away, but they are struggling to hold what they have.
See, also:
The Russian Army Wasn't Designed for War and Putin's War in Ukraine Is Proving It
Hundreds of soldiers deserted and hitchhiked home. They said the equipment they were given did not work.
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While this is amusing, it points to a significant problem brewing inside the Russian armed forces. By the evidence we see in the field in Ukraine, the Russian armed forces are not structured for resilience in combat.
Over the last two months, numerous stories have been circulating about endemic desertion, defection, combat refusal, and worse (Report: What Russians Did to Their Commander Shows How Much Trouble They’re In) in the Russian armed forces involved in Putin’s War.
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The problems are sufficiently severe that Russia is reported to be falling back on a tried-and-true method of preventing desertion.
Putin sends in 'execution squads' to kill Russian deserters https://t.co/LmHD1Fe9MR
— Daily Mail Online (@MailOnline) March 23, 2022
It is reported that one of Putin’s favorite auxiliary forces, Chechen thugs personally loyal to Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov, were the spark that set off a firefight between Russian units because they served as the enforcers to keep other troops from retreating and used that opportunity to pick over the loot the attacking troops have to leave behind.
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There is much more.
See, also:
Pentagon describes Russian offensive stalled on all fronts in Ukraine
And:
‘They Deceived Us at Every Step’: Troops Say Russia’s War Is in Shambles
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