Census undercounted red states and over counted blue states

 John Sexton:

...

That there were a roughly equal number of states with overcounts as undercounts seems reasonable but the geographical and political breakdown of where those happened is interesting:

The results showed that six states — Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi, Florida, Illinois and Texas — likely have a larger population than was officially counted.

Eight states likely have fewer residents than were recorded, the survey found: Hawaii, Delaware, Rhode Island, Minnesota, New York, Utah, Massachusetts and Ohio…

The post-mortem will not change the official state-by-state results of the census, which said that 331,459,281 people were living in the United States in 2020. Nor will it alter the allotment of seats in the House of Representatives or in state and local political districts, even though its findings arguably could have affected those decisions.

So, the bottom line is that it’s too late now for any of this to matter. Still, it’s hard not to notice the pattern. Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi, Florida and Texas are all red states. Here’s the breakdown of who these states send to the House of Representatives:

  • Arkansas – 4 Republicans
  • Florida – 16 Republicans, 11 Democrats
  • Mississippi – 3 Republicans, 1 Democrat
  • Tennessee – 7 Republicans, 2 Democrats
  • Texas – 23 Republicans, 13 Democrats (though one, Filemon Vela, resigned in March)

That leaves one outlier in the undercount category, Illinois, which sent 5 Republicans and 13 Democrats to the House. Still, it’s basically red states, including two of the largest states in country, where the undercounts happened. The size of the undercounts was pretty significant is some cases.

...

There is much more.

Tennessee and Arkansas had the highest percentage of undercounts and Hawii had the highest percentage of overcounts.Most of the states with significant undercounts were ones where there has been the most growth.  Illinois was an exception to that.

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