The Russian stalemate in Ukraine

 Frederick W. Kagan:

WHAT STALEMATE MEANS IN UKRAINE AND WHY IT MATTERS

...

 Stalemate describes a condition in war in which neither side can change the front lines dramatically no matter how hard it tries. WWII never reached stalemate in Europe. The opponents alternated offensive and defensive campaigns but were almost always moving. World War I epitomized stalemate. Stalemate in that conflict, as in others, saw lots of very hard and nasty fighting with many casualties on both sides. The front lines became generally (but not completely) static, with very little movement. There was always some movement of the lines even in World War I, but never enough to change the situation materially.

...

There is much more.

In many areas of Ukraine, the Russians have gone over to the defensive and are now seeing counterattacks by Ukraine.  The success of those counterattacks could impact the current stalemate.  They will require continued supplies from the West to succeed. 

Kagan gives the example of the German operations in the Soviet Union as an example of a stalemate.  That could be the case or we could see a Napoleonic collapse and retreat from a failed offensive.  The morale of the Russian troops could be a factor in that collapse.

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