Russian troop morale problems and Ukraine counterattacks
Ukrainian forces conducted a major successful counterattack around Mykolayiv in the past several days, and Russian forces continued to secure territorial gains only around Mariupol on March 18. Russian forces face growing morale and supply problems, including growing reports of self-mutilation among Russian troops to avoid deployment to Ukraine and shortages of key guided munitions. The Ukrainian General Staff continued to report on March 18 that Russia has failed to achieve its strategic objectives in Ukraine, including destroying the Ukrainian Armed Forces, capturing Kyiv, and establishing control over Ukraine to the east bank of the Dnipro River—the first time the Ukrainian General Staff included this territorial conquest as an explicit Russian objective.[1] The Ukrainian General Staff additionally stated that Ukrainian forces “continue step by step to liberate the temporarily occupied territory of Ukraine in all directions” on March 18, the first Ukrainian mention of conducting counterattacks “in all directions.”[2]
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The Ukrainian General Staff reported Russia has “significantly exhausted its human resources” due to battle casualties, cases of self-mutilation to avoid deployment, and psychological factors.[3] The General Staff stated Russia is having to take “extreme matters in matters of staffing,” including deploying, conscripts, cadets, and mercenaries from Syria.[4] Ukrainian intelligence reported approximately 130 personnel of the 20th Motor Rifle Division (of the 8th Combined Arms Army) refused to deploy to Ukraine and participate in combat operations at an unspecified time.[5] The Ukrainian General Staff additionally reported the Kremlin plans to remove Colonel Vadym Pankov, commander of the 45th Special Brigade due to his ”failure to perform a combat mission at Hostomel airfield”—possibly referring to Russia’s failed airborne landing at Hostomel in the first 72 hours of the war.[6] This is the first confirmed dismissal of a Russian general for their performance in Ukraine. The Ukrainian General Staff stated on March 17 that Russia has already recruited 1,000 personnel from Syria, with the main requirement to have experience in urban combat.[7] The Ukrainian General Staff also reported the Kremlin shifted Russia’s military-industrial complex involved in producing Kalibr and MLRS “Tornado” ammunition to “around-the-clock" production due to the “consumption of almost all missile ammunition” as of March 18.[8]
Russian forces are escalating repressive measures in areas of occupied Ukraine in response to mounting Ukrainian attacks behind Russian lines. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces are attempting to establish a “strict administrative and police regime” in several areas while also attempting to “create a positive image” by distributing food to the civilian population.[9] The General Staff additionally stated Russian forces are actively searching for and detaining “pro-Ukrainian activists, civil servants, members of the [Ukrainian military] and members of their families, as well as other citizens who may organize resistance to the occupation.”[10]
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There is much more.
Self-mutilations are not the mark of a successful operation. It suggests that troops are aware of the failure of the mission and the deaths of former comrades. If Russia has exhausted its human resources as alleged it suggests their military was not large enough to execute the mission they were assigned. It looks like Russia spread its troops too thin to take and hold the area they were assigned. It also suggests they are meeting much greater resistance than expected. This is both an intelligence failure and a planning blunder at the very top. The Russian commanders appear to be slow to grasp they are facing insurgency tactics as well as combined arms operations.
See, also:
Russia still 'largely stalled' across Ukraine: US defense official
A senior defense official said Russian troops have been unable to make 'significant' advances on Kyiv
And:
Report: Russian Soldiers Shooting Themselves in Legs to Avoid Fighting
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