Russia struggles to replace ammo and troop losses in Ukraine

 ISW:

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Russian forces face mounting difficulties replacing combat casualties and replacing expended munitions. The Ukrainian General Staff stated on March 17 that Russian forces will begin another wave of mobilization for the Donetsk People’s Republic’s (DNR) 1st Army Corps on March 20.[2] Ukrainian intelligence continued to report Russian forces face difficulties manning both combat and support units and increasing desertion rates.[3] The General Staff further reported that Russian forces are increasingly using indiscriminate weapons against residential areas because they used almost their entire supply of “Kalibr” and “Iskander” cruise missiles in the first 20 days of the invasion.[4] It is unclear if the Ukrainian General Staff means Russian forces have used almost all precision munitions earmarked for the operation in Ukraine or almost all missiles in Russia’s total arsenal—though likely the former.

The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported several details on Russian efforts to recruit Syrian mercenaries on March 17.[5] The GUR reported that the Russian military ordered its base in Hmeimim, Syria to send up to 300 fighters from Syria to Ukraine daily. The GUR additionally reported that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has promised to recruit 40,000 Syrian fighters to deploy to Ukraine. The GUR reported Russian authorities are promising Syrian recruits that they will exclusively act as police in occupied territories. Finally, the GUR reported low morale among Syrian recruits, including several cases of self-mutilation to avoid being deployed, and claimed many fighters see deploying to Russia and Belarus as an opportunity to desert and migrate to the EU.
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The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces unsuccessfully attempted to regain unspecified territory northwest of Kyiv on March 17 that it claimed Russian forces previously lost to Ukrainian counterattacks.[6] ISW cannot confirm the exact location of these claimed Ukrainian counterattacks. The Ukrainian General Staff additionally stated that Russian forces focused their main efforts on reconnaissance and organizing counter-battery fire on March 17—the first Ukrainian mention of counter-battery fire as an explicit Russian priority.[7] Ukrainian forces inflicted heavy casualties on Russian forces northwest of Kyiv on March 17, forcing the 36th Combined Arms Army (CAA) to “mobilize reserves prematurely” and conducted an artillery strike on a command post of the 35th CAA roughly 35 kilometers from the Ukrainian-Belarusian border.[8]
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The Ukrainian General Staff reported at 6:00 pm local time on March 17 that Ukrainian forces inflicted heavy losses on the Russian 252nd Motor Rifle Regiment (of the 3rd Motor Rifle Division) in fighting near Kharkiv and Izyum, destroying 30 percent of the regiment's personnel and equipment.[13] The General Staff additionally reported that Ukrainian forces killed Colonel Igor Nikolaev, commander of the 252nd Motor Rifle Regiment, on March 15.[14] Ukrainian forces released footage of several captured and destroyed vehicles of the Russian 47th Tank Division around Kharkiv on March 17.[15] Russian forces continued to shell Kharkiv on March 17 but did not launch any major assaults.[16] Ukrainian Territorial Defense forces released a video of a raid behind Russian lines near Kharkiv on March 16.[17]
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The Russians appear to still have trouble taking and holding objectives in most of Ukraine.  Their manpower problems continue to plague operations and they are losing leadership as well as frontline troops that could further cripple their operations.  Putin's attempts to hire mercenaries suggest he is out of reserves to continue the fight.  I suspect the morale problems for the Russian forces are probably worsening.  As noted in the post previous to this one, Putin appears to be running out of money because of the sanctions.

One of the questions that is not addressed in this report is if US intelligence was aware the Russian military was this weak and inept.  Were they as surprised as Putin must be at the failure of Russia to achieve its objectives?  I suspect they must be the case because they were predicting that Kyiv would have fallen in a matter of days after the start of the war.  Recall that US intel also got the speed of the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan wrong too.

See, also:

A flustered Vladimir Putin seeks to regain the initiative in Ukraine

And: 

Here comes the Ukrainian counteroffensive

And: 

Russian Soldiers Shooting Themselves to Avoid Front Lines