Russia has insufficient troops and armaments for its Ukraine war

 ISW:

Russia continues to face difficulties replacing combat losses and increasingly seeks to leverage irregular forces including Russian PMCs and Syrian fighters. The Ukrainian General Staff claimed that Russian servicemen are increasingly refusing to travel to Ukraine despite promises of veteran status and higher salaries.[1] The Ukrainian General Staff reported on March 14 that Russia has recruited over a thousand Syrian fighters in “recent days” and that approximately 400 Syrian fighters have arrived in Russia.[2] Russia reportedly established training camps near Rostov (in Russia, directly east of Donbas) and Gomel (in Belarus, north of Kyiv). Senior Lieutenant Sergey Zavadsky of the Russian PMC Wagner Group was confirmed killed in Ukraine on March 13, the first verified Russian PMC casualty since the start of the invasion on February 24.[3]

Russian and Belarusian forces increased their activity near the Ukrainian border in the last 24 hours in a likely effort to pin down Ukrainian forces but likely do not have the capability to open a new axis of advance into western Ukraine. The Ukrainian General Staff reported Russian unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) are increasingly conducting reconnaissance of settlements near the Ukrainian-Belarusian border in western Ukraine.[4] The General Staff additionally stated that Belarusian forces “strengthened the protection” of the Belarusian-Ukrainian border.[5] It is unclear if the Ukrainian General Staff has observed additional Belarusian forces deploying to the Ukrainian border or if troops already in place are increasing their readiness. ISW cannot independently confirm any additional Belarusian redeployments in the last 48 hours. Social media users observed Russian forces, including Rosgvardia units, deploying to southern Belarus on March 13-14.[6] These forces will likely reinforce existing Russian operations toward Kyiv. Russian and Belarusian forces likely seek to pin Ukrainian forces on the Belarusian border with the threat of new offensive operations, preventing those forces from reinforcing the defense of Kyiv. However, Russian and Belarusian forces remain unlikely to have the capability or intent to open a new axis of advance into western Ukraine at this time.

Russian and Chinese officials both denied US intelligence reports that Russia sought military aid from China. Both claimed that Russia does not need additional military support. Russian and Chinese officials and state media denied US media reports on March 13 that Russia requested military aid from China, calling these reports disinformation.[7] Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov pushed back on the reports and denied that Russia would need any external aid, claiming that "Russia has an independent potential to continue the operation" and that Russian operations “will be completed on time and in full.”[8] Chinese state media similarly stated that Russia does not need Chinese help in its “limited-scale” war in Ukraine but emphasized that the United States cannot obligate China to promise not to export arms to Russia.[9] Russia and China likely have discussed possible Chinese military aid to Russia, but both seek to frame Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a limited operation and to avoid acknowledging growing Russian supply issues.

Ukrainian military intelligence reported on March 14 that Russian forces are seizing Ukrainian farming machinery for engineering work, constructing fortifications, and as ad hoc armored vehicles and are forcing Ukrainian civilians to help them.[10] Independent Ukrainian human rights organizations additionally report Russian forces are abducting activists, volunteers, and journalists in several occupied cities, including Kherson, Berdyansk, and Melitopol.[11]

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Russia's current limited operations and its scrambling to find mercenaries belie its optimism about being on schedule.  The Russian military has made several mistakes.  They have tried to do too much with an inadequate force that is poorly led.  They are now reduced to standoff shelling of civilians in cities because they do not have enough force to seize those cities and occupy them.  Even when they take a small city they can't seem to control it.  This is likely because they have an inadequate force to space ratio in dealing with what is in effect an insurgency.