Russia continues to struggle in operations against Ukraine

 Institute for the Study of War:

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Russian forces are completing the reinforcement and resupply of their troops north and west of Kyiv and launching an envelopment of the capital likely aimed at encircling and ultimately capturing it. This effort will likely accelerate in the next 24-48 hours. Russian operations against Kyiv are Moscow’s main effort. Russian troops are also undertaking three supporting efforts, one to seize Kharkiv, one to take Mariupol and secure the “land bridge” connecting Rostov-on-Don to Crimea, and one to secure Kherson and set conditions for a drive west toward Mykolayiv and Odesa. The three supporting operations are active, with the operation against Mariupol making the most progress in the last 24 hours.

Russian troops claim to have encircled Mariupol and have reportedly entered the city of Kherson in the south. Russian forces are receiving needed supplies and reinforcements that may facilitate much more rapid and effective operations in the coming 24-72 hours. The Russian effort around Kyiv remains poorly organized, however, with elements of many different battalions combined into what seem to be ad hoc groupings rather than operating under standing regiment or brigade headquarters. The initial errors in the Russian force composition and organization in Belarus and western Russia that ISW has previously reported on, which contributed to Russian logistical and operational failures around Kyiv, will be difficult to remedy quickly and will likely continue to cause friction and reduce the effectiveness of Russian operations even as supply issues are addressed and reinforcements come into the fight. It remains too early to evaluate the likely effective combat power the added Russian troops will bring.

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The Russian logistic effort in support of its troops has been unimpressive.  They have continued to be stalled in their advances toward various objectives.  It is also apparent that Ukraine has limited air power to attack the stalled troops formations.  In the early days of the war, Ukraine surprised Russia with an effective air campaign but I get the impression it is no longer operational sufficiently.   The Russian's slow logistic effort has given Ukraine forces time to prepare for operations against the cities and it appears that Russia has an insufficient force to space ration to deal with Ukraine's resistance in several of the cities.

It does appear that EU support has not come through with additional airpower for Ukraine.  But weapons are being supplied for the resistance to Russia on other fronts.  Russia also continues to face resistance to its war efforts in demonstrations within Russia.  It seems clear that Putin is facing resistance to his operations at home and abroad.  The sanctions regime could be having an impact on the Russian economy that will eventually make the war more costly.

Russia has also been forced to use some of its heavy weapons, which have so far not halted Ukraine resistance:

Vacuum bombs, thermobaric rockets, and nukes: Putin's devastating arsenal

There is also growing resistance to buying Russian oil which has funded operations to date: 

"The Market Is Starting To Fail": Buyers Balk At Russian Oil Purchases Despite Record Discounts, Sanction Carve Outs