Putin continues to make unrealistic demands of Ukraine
The Kremlin retains its maximalist political demands in ongoing negotiations with Ukraine and is unlikely to soften them despite the Russian military failing to achieve its objectives. Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated Russia’s political demands in a phone call with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on March 17.[1] The Kremlin demands that Ukraine become “neutral” by renouncing its NATO membership ambitions, demilitarize by halting all western military aid or weapons sales to Ukraine, and “denazify.” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov defined the “denazification” of Ukraine as the abolition of any laws that discriminate against Russian-speaking populations on March 18—the first time a senior Kremlin official has publicly stated the Kremlin’s definition of Ukrainian “denazification.”[2] Putin additionally stated that Ukrainian negotiators must resolve these issues before he will engage in leadership-level negotiations with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on the status of Crimea and Donbas.[3] Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov accused Ukraine on March 18 of prolonging the negotiations and delaying an agreement with Russia.[4]
Turkish mediation efforts are unlikely to lead to a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called for direct negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin on March 19, but Chief Turkish Presidential Advisor Ibrahim Kalin stated that Putin was not ready for such talks.[5] Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu claimed Russia and Ukraine were close to an agreement on “critical issues” on March 20, possibly signaling a ceasefire. However, head Ukrainian negotiator Mikhalo Podolyak said on March 17 that negotiations on “disputed points” could take anywhere from several days to one and a half weeks, and Peskov denied that negotiators are currently considering a ceasefire on March 21.[6]
Ukrainian negotiators and government officials are signaling their willingness to concede on NATO membership aspirations but are highly unlikely to meet Russia’s other demanded concessions. President Zelensky signaled he is willing to consider a Ukrainian neutrality policy in return for other security guarantees from Western states during an interview with CNN on March 20.[7] Zelensky stated on March 20 that Ukraine will not agree to any deal that forces it to surrender territory or sovereignty.[8] Zelensky also said on March 21 that any agreement with Russia would be subject to a country-wide referendum before being adopted.[9] Ukraine is highly unlikely to make any major concessions to Russia due to the current military stalemate and failure of Russia’s initial campaign plans. The Ukrainian population is additionally highly unlikely to support any major concessions to Russia.
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Russia is losing ground war in Ukraine and has already lost the "hearts and mind" battle. The resistance of the Ukraine population appears to be unmoved by the Russian terror tactics or even the outcomes of some battles. The battle that continues at Mariupol is an example of the resistance to any Russian rule.
I suspect the real reason Putin is reluctant to meet directly in negotiations is that he knows he is currently losing. If Ukraine is to accept a neutrality policy it would not include disarmament. Putin and his government would never be trusted on that level after his aggression against Ukraine under the premise of the Greater Russia" narrative Putin used.
See, also:
Russia Going All Medieval on the Ukrainian City of Mariupol
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