Kerry's Middle East delusions

Jackson Diehl:

During a tour of the Middle East in November, Secretary of State John F. Kerry portrayed the region as on its way to a stunning series of breakthroughs, thanks to U.S. diplomacy. In Egypt, he said, “the roadmap” to democracy “is being carried out, to the best of our perception.” In Syria, a peace conference would soon replace the Assad regime with a transitional government, because “the Russians and the Iranians . . . will make certain that the Syrian regime will live up to its obligation.”

Last but hardly least, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict was on its way to a final settlement — by April. “This is not mission impossible,” insisted the secretary of state. “This can happen.”

Some people heaped praise on Kerry for his bold ambitions, saying he was injecting vision and energy into the Obama administration’s inert foreign policy. Others, including me, said he was delusional.

Four months have passed, and, sadly for Kerry and U.S. interests, the verdict is in: delusional. Egypt is under the thumb of an authoritarian general. The Syrian peace talks imploded soon after they began. Kerry is now frantically trying to prevent the collapse of the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, which are hanging by a thread — and all sides agree there will be no deal in April.
...

Kerry offered an answer to my first critique of him in an interview with Susan Glasser of Politico: “I would ask” anyone “who was critical of our engagement: What is the alternative?” Well, the alternative is to address the Middle East as it really is. Recognize that Egypt’s generals are reinstalling a dictatorship and that U.S. aid therefore cannot be resumed; refocus on resuscitating and defending Egypt’s real democrats. Admit that the Assad regime won’t quit unless it is defeated on the battlefield and adopt a strategy to bring about that defeat. Concede that a comprehensive Israeli-Palestinian peace isn’t possible now and look for more modest ways to build the groundwork for a future Palestinian state.

In short, drop the delusions.

Kerry has been mostly wrong about the Middle East most of his life.  He was one of those Democrats who thought we could do business with Assad and pushed to reopen relationships, which went absolutely no where.  Diehl left out Kerry's frantic but futile attempts to get a deal with Iran on its nukes.  His dealing with Iran and Syria have led to a breach of relations with the Saudis and distrust from Israel, which would make a potential Palestinian deal even more difficult if the Palestinians were ever serious about reaching a deal in the first place.

The Palestinians have a beggar culture of dependency that they fear having to give up if they ever had a deal with Israel.  Then there is the fact that they have no strong interest in restraining the terrorist threat against Israel which leaves them with nothing of value to offer Israel in reaching a deal.  But if they really wanted to stop settlements they could have done it numerous times by taking the deal Israel offered.

As for Egypt, it does not appear there are very many "real democrats."  The Muslim Brotherhood just saw voting as a transitional phase to the Islamic tyranny they had in mind.  The generals at least have some competence at managing the country.