Shale oil and gas to make US self sufficient

Guardian:

Growth in shale oil and gas supplies will make the US virtually self-sufficient in energy by 2030, according to a BP report published on Wednesday.

In a development with enormous geopolitical implications, the country's dependence on oil imports from potentially volatile countries in the Middle East and elsewhere would disappear, BP said, although Britain and western Europe would still need Gulf supplies.

BP's latest energy outlook forecasts a growth in unconventional energy sources, "including US shale oil and gas, Canadian oil sands and Brazilian deepwater, plus a gradual decline in demand, that would see [North America] become almost totally energy self-sufficient" in two decades.

BP's chief executive, Bob Dudley, said: "Our report challenges some long-held beliefs. Significant changes in US supply-and-demand prospects, for example, highlight the likelihood that import dependence in what is today's largest energy importer will decline substantially."

The report said the volume of oil imports in the US would fall below 1990s levels, largely due to rising domestic shale oil production and ethanol replacing crude. The US would also become a net exporter of natural gas.

Overall, global energy demand would surge in the next 20 years, fuelled by economic and population growth in China and India, but at a slowing annual rate, due to advances in energy efficiency and growth of renewables. China would leapfrog the US to become the biggest energy importer.

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This does not include the significant offshore oil plays that the Obama administration has been strangling because of the BP spill.  If those were included it could make the US a net exporter eventually.  That is enough to have Big Green writhing in agony.