Al Qaeda's chaos strategy at work
Image by Getty Images via @daylifeA year before the Middle East uprisings that have shaken regimes across the region, a top al Qaeda operative from Libya was predicting that U.S. involvement in Afghanistan and Iraq would destabilize governments in the Muslim world and he outlined ways in which al Qaeda could capitalize on the chaos.Time will tell whether the chaos underway now will strenthen al Qaeda, but there is no such ambiguity when it comes to their strategy. It has always been to create chaos in hopes of getting people in power who are open to their religious bigotry and power goals. That is how the Taliban took power in Afghanistan and it is how they attempted to take power in Iraq.
Sheikh Abu-Yahya al-Libi, who is considered by experts the third-ranking operative in al Qaeda, focused much of his writing on the tiny country of Yemen, where the American-backed government of Ali Abdullah Saleh is struggling against violent protests. In a February 2010 report called "Yemeni Government to America: I Sacrifice Myself for Your Sake," he described with eerie accuracy the coming revolt.
Al-Libi wrote that the United States, already spread thin by two wars, would use proxy fighters and weapons in the region. "In effect, U.S. involvement would aid in destabilizing the Yemeni government on al Qaeda's behalf," said Jarret Brachman, a former CIA analyst and expert on al Qaeda who has analyzed the report.
"[Yemen] has found agents and collaborators who have said we will sacrifice ourselves for your [United States] sake," said al-Libi. "The United States thought that the battle ended when the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan was overthrown. It did not know that this was only the beginning."
The al Qaeda chief wrote in the paper that the terrorist group failed to blow up a Northwest Airlines jet bound from Amsterdam to Detroit on Dec. 25, 2009. That compelled American officials to decide to spend more money backing the corrupt Yemeni government in an effort to root out al Qaeda there, experts said.
But some experts say those efforts have backfired -- something al-Libi predicted.
White House and U.S. intelligence officials are now grappling with the possibility that the anti-government revolutions sweeping across the Middle East and North Africa may be strengthening al Qaeda.
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What is happening throughout the Arab world right now maybe more chaos then even they can manage. But their allies will try to exploit it. In someways it creates a dilemma for al Qaeda which opposes democracy. Will they wind up supporting elections that could bring allies like the Egyptian brotherhood to power? Probably not, but they will push for the end of democracy as soon as their guys are in power.
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