Kim Kagan's Iraq trip report
You can read Kim Kagan's report at the Weekly Standard. This is her fourth trip since May 2007 when Harry Reid pronounced the surge a failure. The improvements have been dramatic since even her third trip in February this year. What follows are some of my notes from a blogger conference this afternoon.
In her travels around the country she saw improved security in Mosul, East Baghdad and Basra where the Iraqi army has moved in and the enemy has either moved out or gone into hiding.
One of the interesting developments is the influx of Iranian tourist who are seeing the benefits of democracy that are not available in their own country. This could have a long term impact on Iran. There is still a problem with Iranian weapons coming into the country, but the Iraqi army is only now turning to border security as it gets a grip on the internal security problems.
In Diyala province there are still some seams of resistance that were not cleared in the earlier sweeps that need to be addressed as well as the area near the Iran border which has been pretty much ignored.
Kagan believes al Qaeda and other enemy forces have devolved into small pockets moving into remote areas in hopes of surviving so they can fight another day. These remainder units have evidently not lossed the will to fight even though their situation becomes more hopeless each day. When they recognize that their situation is hopeless they will give up the fight.
Right now I beleive political developments in the US are giving them the hope that keeps them hanging on. You have one party that is promising to withdraw from the battle before it is completed. This is a strategic and tatical error that will make the war last long and be more costly to all sides. If this war is eventually lossed it will be because of the eagerness of some to leave.
In her travels around the country she saw improved security in Mosul, East Baghdad and Basra where the Iraqi army has moved in and the enemy has either moved out or gone into hiding.
One of the interesting developments is the influx of Iranian tourist who are seeing the benefits of democracy that are not available in their own country. This could have a long term impact on Iran. There is still a problem with Iranian weapons coming into the country, but the Iraqi army is only now turning to border security as it gets a grip on the internal security problems.
In Diyala province there are still some seams of resistance that were not cleared in the earlier sweeps that need to be addressed as well as the area near the Iran border which has been pretty much ignored.
Kagan believes al Qaeda and other enemy forces have devolved into small pockets moving into remote areas in hopes of surviving so they can fight another day. These remainder units have evidently not lossed the will to fight even though their situation becomes more hopeless each day. When they recognize that their situation is hopeless they will give up the fight.
Right now I beleive political developments in the US are giving them the hope that keeps them hanging on. You have one party that is promising to withdraw from the battle before it is completed. This is a strategic and tatical error that will make the war last long and be more costly to all sides. If this war is eventually lossed it will be because of the eagerness of some to leave.
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