Israel thinks PM Saniora's plan is a good one

Jerusalem Post:

Israel believes it has a 48-72-hour "window of opportunity" to pound Hizbullah and damage its operational capabilities before the world steps in and stops the fighting, senior diplomatic officials in Jerusalem said Saturday night.

The officials noted positively that Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Saniora had said Saturday at a press conference that his government would reassert government authority over all Lebanese territory - an allusion to the possibility of deploying the Lebanese army in south Lebanon, which is effectively controlled by Hizbullah.

Senior sources in the Prime Minister's Office said that dislodging Hizbullah from southern Lebanon and getting the government in Beirut to assert its authority over the area as called for by UN Security Council Resolution 1559 were among the primary goals of the IDF's current campaign. However, the officials said, the two abducted IDF soldiers also needed to be returned.

"It is a good plan," one senior diplomatic official said of Saniora's statement. "The big question is whether he has the ability to do it."

The official said the deployment of Lebanon's army south would be a good way out of the crisis. "But Israel would also like more time to inflict more damage on Hizbullah's operational capabilities," he said.

"It's an excellent declaration but he doesn't need our permission...We have to see what they do and not what they say," Vice Premier Shimon Peres told Israel's Channel 2 TV. He said Lebanon has to prove it is serious by deploying on the southern border. "A foreign body has entered the area and it's your job to get them out of there," he said.

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There is more.

Israel will obviously do all it can in the meantime to destroy Hezballah's ability to resist the Lebanonese Prime Minister's proposal. It is in the interest of both to see Hezballah's militia is disarmed and is no longer a threat to Israel or Lebanon.

It would not surprise me to see Hezballah try to take action against the government of Lebanon at this point. They will obviously have to be ducking and hiding from Israeli planes to do so, but Israel's situational awareness is nat as good as it should be as shown by the missile attack on its ship that was a surprise. The Lebanonese should also be wary of Syrian or Iranian agents attempting another Hariri type operation.

It is also clear that despite command of the air, Israel has not been able to find and destroy all the missile launch sites in southern Lebanon. Their counter battery radar should be giving them some idea, but Hezballah is probably firing off a volley and then quickly leaving, which means Isreal also needs good aerial surveilance in the area.

This analysis discusses the problems with finding and destroying the missiles. The author does not mention it but Israel did develop witht eh US a system that was effective at stopping a rocket propeled grenade. However it was intended to protect armored vehicles, but Israel might be able to adapt it to protect larger areas in the future. The rockets that are fired may frighten and kill a few non combatants but they would not be militarily significant against a military operation.