Hezballah decision making

Magnus Ranstorp:

Hizballah’s decision to kidnap the two IDF soldiers was taken by Sheikh Hassan Nasserallah and the other six members of the Shura Karar, its supreme decision-making body. Additionally there are two Iranian representatives (from the Iranian embassy in Beirut/Damascus) that provide a direct link on matters that require strategic guidance or Iranian assistance or arbitration. The file for handling special operations of this kind is usually left to Imad Mughniyeh, the elusive terrorist mastermind for Hizballah, who stands with one foot within Hizballah (reporting to Nasserallah directly) and with one foot in Iran inside the architectures of the Iranian Ministry of Intelligence and Security (MOIS) and the al-Qods unit within the Iranian Pasdaran. Mughniyeh is strictly reserved for special occasions (like the Buenos Aires bombing in 1992 to avenge the Israeli assassination of the previous leader Sheikh Abbas al-Musawi) and his primary mission over the last decade has been to forge qualitative ‘military’ guidance to Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad operatives inside Gaza and the West Bank.

Hizballah’s overall guidance and support to the Palestinian militants has been strengthened on multiple levels. Firstly the presence of Osama Hamdan, Hamas’ representative to Lebanon, makes a qualitative difference. Hamdan is an important conduit for the Hizballah-Hamas-Iran axis as he was the Hamas representative to Iran for many years. Hamdan resides in dahiyya (southern suburbs) of Beirut amidst Hizballah’s own offices and supporters. Alongside with the Hamas exile leadership in Syria (most notably Imad Alami, Khalid Mishal and others), this presence has strengthened Hamas-Hizballah consultations on all strategic and military affairs, especially influencing the decision by Hamas to recently kidnap the IDF soldier. Undoubtedly Hizballah influenced this decision.

Secondly, Hizballah provides continuous qualitative technical advice to Hamas in improving the Qassem rocket series through blueprints via e-mail and advice on advanced tactical guerrilla and other fighting techniques. This has even extended towards smuggling weaponry through Jordan as was evident by the 2001 arrest of one of Imad Mughniyeh’s assistants. Some of this technical expertise has been diverted towards Iraq where Hizballah has provided some technical expertise to local Shia factions to attack coalition forces.

Thirdly, Hizballah has accelerated its efforts to recruit and use foreign nationals (usually EU-passport holders) as low-level reconnaissance operatives inside Israel (see article) providing a potential second internal front for future missions. This has been complimented by a drive to recruit Druze officers inside the IDF.

...

There is more. Nasserallah's main purpose is to use the kidnapping for bargaining. It is not clear that he was bargaining for the destruction that Israel is bringing to his forces. He may also find himslef being disarmed as a result of his miscalculations. That is if he survives. He is a legitimate target and hopefully Israel will find him.

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