Calling Iran's bluff

James Lewis:

Iran’s President Ahmadinejad has been making murderous threats against the Jewish state for months and months. The Israelis don’t like big rhetorical gestures, but they know perfectly well that leaving Ahmadinejad’s genocidal boasting unanswered would send a signal of lethal vulnerability to a monster. We are seeing their answer shaping up even now.

We can’t know the outcome of the battle now in progress. However, it is clear that Israel has called Ahmadinejad’s bluff. So far, there are two signs for the world to see: Israeli freedom to act as it wants, and the impotence of Syria and Iran to protect their proxies on the borders of Israel.

The IDF is attacking at a time and place of its choosing. If a country the size of Israel is going to tackle Iran, with ten times its population, it must first protect its own rear. The IDF cannot afford to have more than 10 thousand short-range rockets aimed at Israel’s population, all in the hands of Iran’s terror proxy, Hezbollah. For strategic reasons alone, therefore, it is imperative to clean out the threat to the rear before making any direct move again Tehran.

That does not mean the IDF is now committed to attack Bushehr and Natanz, the two most likely nuclear targets in Iran. But if it can cripple the threat from Hezbollah and Hamas for some time to come, it is clearing a strategic space to strike at Iran itself.

So far there have been some astonishingly supportive noises from Arab sources – historically unprecedented ones. The Saudis have publicly tut-tutted—- against Hezbollah (!) (which is Shiite and supported by Saudi Arabia’s biggest existential threat across the Gulf). Lebanese newspapers have voiced public hatred of Hezbollah and its Syrian allies, and little criticism of Israel’s actions. Most surprisingly, the Iranians have drawn a line in the sand, but so as to exclude their allies in Lebanon. Ahmadinejad just told the world that Israel must not attack Syria, but he has said nothing about Hezbollah, now under fierce and systematic attack. In public, at least, Iran has already retreated.

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It should also be noted that in this war that is no Muslim state is willing to take on Israel directly. You have Iran and Syria using proxy warriors, because they do not have the confidence or the ability to take on Israel on their own, Since 1973 No Muslim state has done anything other than keep the Palestinians festering like a infected sore around Israel. Many still go through the motions with their religious bigotry and their real estate worship, but they leave the dying to the Palestinians and to Hezballah.