The Dems' sinking support

 Politico:

A round of new internal polling is giving the GOP fresh optimism that the House battleground map is stretching even more favorably in their direction.

Four surveys conducted in late July reveal close races in open seats in Oregon, Colorado and California that President Joe Biden carried by between 11 and 15 points in 2020. Taken all together, GOP operatives view the data as a sign that Biden’s sinking approval numbers could drag Democratic candidates down enough to bring deep blue turf into reach.
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But the numbers comport with general assessments about the state of the House map from strategists of both parties, as well as the close results of the 2021 statewide elections in New Jersey and Virginia. Altogether, the tightening polls suggest that some super-blue seats could be in play in November, which would mean Democrats may have to expend precious resources there on defense — especially because they lack well-funded incumbents.

The most encouraging poll for Republicans came in Oregon’s new 6th District, where Republican Mike Erickson led Democratic state Rep. Andrea Salinas by 7 points, 47 percent to 40 percent, with 13 percent undecided. In a district that Biden won by nearly 14 points, his approval rating is underwater by 20 points. Republicans lead on a generic ballot by 7 points — a rough reality for a seat that Democrats drew to be safe.

Erickson, a supply chain logistics consultant, has poured some of his own money into the race: He raked in $1.1 million in the second quarter, compared to Salinas’ $800,000. The survey of 400 likely voters was conducted July 26-28 by Cygnal for the Erickson campaign and the National Republican Campaign Committee, contacting voters via live calls and text-to-web. The margin of error was plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

Oregon has turned into a surprising pressure point for Democrats, who are defending three open seats in the state. The most at-risk district is the one that Democratic Rep. Kurt Schrader lost in a May primary. Now, a more progressive Democrat is defending the turf against a credible GOP candidate in a seat Biden won by 9 points.

“Voters in historically blue seats are rejecting Democrats’ failed economic record of tax hikes, record-high prices, and a recession,” NRCC communications director Michael McAdams said.
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For Republicans, the surveys are also an encouraging sign that they remain competitive in Democratic-leaning seats in the aftermath of the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.

One recent survey of 400 likely voters in an open district in California’s Central Valley found Democrat Adam Gray leading Republican John Duarte by 4 points, 47 percent to 43 percent. Biden is underwater by 9 points (43 percent approval, 52 percent disapproval) in a district he carried by 11 points in 2020. The seat is open post-redistricting because Rep. Josh Harder (D-Calif.) is running in a more Democratic-friendly district nearby.
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In seats where the Dems are polling better than Biden they may eke out some victories, but they are going to have to work harder than in the past and spend more money to do so which could take away from their other efforts.