Russia's miscalculation in Ukraine

 Washington Post:

Russia’s spies misread Ukraine and misled Kremlin as war loomed

Sensitive materials obtained by Ukrainian and other security services offer rare insight into the activities of Russia’s Federal Security Service, which bears enormous responsibility for Moscow’s failed war plan and the hubris that propelled it.

I don't doubt that they underestimated Ukraine.  But their biggest mistake was overestimating their own military.  The Russian conventional operations have been a disaster because of the failure of equipment, the failure of leadership, and troops that were not up to the fight.  The Russians have not only lost a significant number of casualties but they have also suffered losses of senior leaders who were pushed to the front because of the lack of leadership by NCOs.  The Russian failures go from Putin on down the chain of command.

Russia is a much weaker country as a result of its Ukraine war.

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