Polls show Dems maybe recovering in time for elections

 Washington Examiner:

Democrats are gaining ground on Republicans in the polls after months of predictions of a "red wave" in the midterm elections.

The latest data, separately tracked by FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics, have raised the question: Can President Joe Biden's party defy expectations and deliver a middle-of-the-road outcome in November? The answer is not clear, as two months is an eternity in politics and much can change. The Democrats' recent political gains are noteworthy, nonetheless, and make for a less clear outcome in the fall.

From July 21 to now, marking just one day less than a month, Biden’s average disapproval rating has fallen nearly 3 percentage points, from 57.2% to 54.3%, according to FiveThirtyEight. His average approval rating, meanwhile, has risen over 3 points, from 37.5% to 40.7%.

GOP'S SENATE HOPES ENDANGERED AS INCUMBENT REPUBLICANS LAG IN POLLS

Those remain dismal numbers, but they are a much-welcomed improvement to the president and his allies.

Take the crucial “generic ballot” question, which asks voters which party they would prefer to control Congress. Democrats have trailed Republicans on the generic ballot since November of last year. They’ve trailed by 1 or 2 points on average, however, not anywhere close to double-digit margins. Democrats also reversed their luck since the start of August on the generic ballot, slowly but steadily overtaking Republicans at the start of the month. As of Saturday, Democrats lead Republicans by just over 0.5%.

Republicans and Democrats are tied in the RealClearPolitics average, which is measured differently than FiveThirtyEight's average. Similar to with FiveThirtyEight, Democrats last led in the RCP average in early November 2021. Democrats took the lead from Republicans by 1% in the RCP average on Tuesday, but the party has not been able to hold on to that lead.

...

The polls are what they are, but I think the Democrats still suck.  Their tax and spending policies should be a negative.   The issue that may be driving the polls could be abortion which may be more popular with voters since the Supreme Court returned the issue to the states.

Recent polling results could be misleading as people privately do not support issues they claim publically to support.

See, also:

Several Democrats have said that they will not endorse Biden in 2024

And:

 The new Senate polls are grim. But can they be trusted?

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