How J.D. Vance won in Ohio

 Salena Zito:

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Like former President Donald Trump in the 2016 Ohio primary, Vance won both in Mahoning County and throughout the Steel Valley counties of Trumbull, Stark, Ashtabula, Columbiana, and Portage. Most of these were solidly Democratic until recently. Some have since become Republican, and others will be competitive this fall.

Vance prevailed in the crowded six-way race that included the insurgent candidacy of anti-Trump state Sen. Matt Dolan. Dolan, who poured more than $10 million into his campaign, nearly beat Josh Mandel, the onetime front-runner and former state treasurer, for second place thanks to a last-minute burst of fresh support. Former state party Chairwoman Jane Timken finished fifth, with investment banker Mike Gibbons rounding out the field.

The seat became open when Republican Sen. Rob Portman declined to seek reelection this year.

Youngstown State University political science professor Paul Sracic said that, for a long time, this had been anybody’s race to win in Ohio. “You had five fairly evenly matched candidates, four of who differed very little on important Republican issues such as trade, abortion, and immigration,” he said. Most importantly, none of them were starved for funds, and they were all able to blanket the airwaves with ads.

A major reason for Vance's late surge was his endorsement by Trump. And Vance might have won that thanks to his superior debate performance. “Maybe this was why Trump endorsed him despite the negative things Vance had said about him back in 2016," Sracic said. "Trump likes winners and may have sensed that he found one in J.D. Vance.”

Ohio has shifted pretty hard to the right since it first gave Barack Obama won its electoral votes by 4 points in 2008. Trump handily won the state in both 2016 and 2020.

Vance will face Ryan of Niles, Ohio, who easily won his primary. The Trumbull County Democrat struggled in 2020 to hold on to voters in a district that he has easily won for nearly two decades. He lost his home county for the first time since entering Congress in 2003.

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I suspect Vance will likely keep the seat for the GOP.  Ohio is looking pretty red at this point. 

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