Ukraine misjudgments

 Mike Brest:

...

The Russian leader “overestimated the capacity of his own military” while he “severely underestimated the global reaction the invasion of Ukraine would provoke,” as well as the “will and courage of the people of Ukraine.”

Kendall’s assessment of the fighting in Ukraine aligns with comments made over the course of the week from a senior defense official.

Russian troops in the north are attempting to capture the capital city of Kyiv, though they have been “stalled,” Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said on Wednesday. They remain roughly 15 miles outside of Kyiv, where they’ve been for days now, the official said on Friday.

These troops “have been surprised by the stiff resistance that they are facing by the Ukrainians," Kirby added, while the defense official said earlier this week that the troops are experiencing shortages of fuel and food, many of whom are conscripts who have “never been in combat.”

...

One aspect of the fighting that has remained unexplained is the lack of Russian control over the airspace above Ukraine. Russia has 1,511 combat aircraft, while Ukraine has fewer than 100, according to FlightGlobal's 2022 World Air Forces directory.

"We're seeing the same sort of activity in the air," the senior official said. "There's a certain risk-averse behavior. They are not necessarily willing to take high risks with their own aircraft and their own pilots, and of course, we're seeing that on the ground in the fairly slow and stodgy progress that they have made."

Ukraine has received anti-air and anti-tank weaponry from more than a half-dozen countries, which have been a factor in its ability to keep Russian forces out of Kyiv, though resupplying the troops could become a logistical issue depending on whether Russia is able to conquer certain areas.

...

They appear to be poorly trained and poorly supplied along with being poorly led.  It is a combination that leads to the kind of stodgy performance seen so far.  I think Putin thought he could contian western reaction with nuclear bluster.  It hasn't worked so far.