Media poll puts Perry up by 16

Houston Chronicle:

Gov. Rick Perry holds a commanding lead over his two Republican opponents in a new Houston Chronicle poll, but he still hasn't closed the deal with Republican voters to avoid a runoff with U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison.

However, the race could turn into a Perry victory before the March 2 primary, said pollster Mickey Blum, because of what she called last week's “implosion” of activist candidate Debra Medina.

The poll found Perry leading with 45 percent support among likely Republican voters, with Hutchison at 29 percent and Medina at 17 percent; 8 percent said they were undecided. The Feb. 2-10 telephone interview survey of 464 likely Republican voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

The survey was conducted for the Houston Chronicle, the San Antonio Express-News, the Austin American-Statesman, The Dallas Morning News and the Fort Worth Star-Telegram by Blum & Weprin Associates Inc.

Blum said normally poll numbers for an incumbent such as Perry will be mirrored in election returns. She said this is an unusual election, though.

“He looks good at this point: A 16-point lead and now the third candidate imploding,” Blum said. “He doesn't need very much to get to 50 percent. He just needs (Medina's) people to either stay home or vote for him.”

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At best for Medina she has peaked. She is more likely to go down than up in support right now. Her base is mostly in the Tea Party movement, and Perry has done pretty well with that crowd. In a hypothetical runoff with Hutchison, he is easily winning at this point.

The poll also matched Perry with Democrat Bill White showing the race at 43-37. I suspect the race will not be that close. Unless something dramatic happens, it will be difficult for any Democrat to get more than a third of the vote statewide this fall. When you consider that only 20 percent of independent voters in Texas have a favorable attitude toward President Obama, that has to drag all Democrats down.