How the GOP can take the Senate

John Fund:

Three of the nation's best-known political handicappers -- Larry Sabato, Charlie Cook and Stu Rothenberg -- all agree that if the mid-term elections were held today, Republicans would likely pick up seven Senate seats: Arkansas, Colorado, Delaware, Illinois, Nevada, North Dakota and Pennsylvania.

To capture a Senate majority, Republicans would also have to win Democratic seats in another three states. "Where do the other three seats come from?" asks Mr. Sabato.

That question underlies the GOP's frenzied candidate recruitment as filing deadlines approach in various states. This week, GOP talent spotters won a big one when they convinced former Indiana Senator Dan Coats to run for his old seat against Democrat Evan Bayh. Another possible pickup is in California, where Barbara Boxer is below 50% job-approval, usually an indication that an office-holder is in trouble. Three Republicans are vying to challenge the three-term California incumbent. The New York Senate seat held by appointed Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand would also become competitive should former GOP Governor George Pataki decide to run.

...

Two other states can be in play if the Republicans can recruit the right talent. Wisconsisn would be a very interesting race if Timmy Thompson ran against Feingold, and Patty Murray could be beaten in Washington, if Dino Rossi entered the race. Defeating Murray and Boxer in the same year would certainly raise the collective IQ of the Senate.

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