Lincoln in trouble in Arkansas

Rasmussen Reports:

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A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in Arkansas shows Lincoln’s support for reelection at 38% or 39% no matter which of four potential Republican challengers she is matched against. In surveys last September and December, her support was between 39% and 41% in these match-ups.

State Senator Gilbert Baker leads Lincoln by 12, and State Senate Minority Leader Kim Hendren holds an eight-point edge over the incumbent. Curtis Coleman, a private businessman, and Tom Cox, head of the Arkansas T.E.A. Party, both lead her by 10 points. In reality, however, the numbers reflect very little about the challengers and are best viewed as a referendum on the incumbent.

The two-term senator, who was reelected with 54% of the vote in 2004, appears more vulnerable because of her visible and pivotal role in the Senate debate over health care. Lincoln was the last Democrat to vote for allowing the debate to formally begin, but she took a lower profile in the vote for final passage.

Just 35% of Arkansas voters favor the health care plan proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats. Sixty percent (60%) are opposed. Those figures include 17% who Strongly Favor the plan and 51% who are Strongly Opposed. Bleak as those numbers are for advocates of the legislation, they are actually a few points better than the numbers from a month ago.

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Democrats who think that passing health care is going to benefit their party are delusional. Lincoln is looking at approval ratings that are in the same territory as Dorgan and Dodd. It would not surprise me to see her retire too.

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