The Democrats' difficlut year

Dan Balz:

Democrats have long known that 2010 will be a difficult year politically, but the opening days of the new year have brought home that reality with unexpected intensity.

The surprise retirement announcements by a pair of veteran senators and a first-term governor often lauded as a rising star in the West underscored the degree to which the party begins this election year on the defensive.

The euphoria among Democrats that accompanied President Obama's inauguration a year ago has disappeared. They face the possible loss of their governing majorities in the House and Senate and becoming the minority among the nation's governors. Survival is now the watchword.

Democrats will note that there are individual reasons why each of the three politicians chose not to run, but Connecticut Sen. Christopher Dodd, North Dakota Sen. Byron Dorgan and Colorado Gov. Bill Ritter collectively sent a message that speaks to the nervousness of incumbents -- particularly Democratic incumbents -- in a year in which voter dissatisfaction is palpable. Six Republican senators said last year that they will not seek reelection.

In some Democratic circles, including at the White House, there is a hope that by next fall the landscape will look less forbidding. That is based on two assumptions. First, that the economic outlook will be brighter and that unemployment might be lower than it is today. Second, that, with the expected passage of comprehensive health-care reform, the public will look more favorably on the changes than they do today.

But even optimistic Democrats fear that might not be enough to head off potentially sizeable losses. After two big elections, Democrats are due for a setback. The decisions by Dodd, Dorgan and Ritter speak to that calculus. For their own reasons, the three have concluded that the outlook for their futures won't change dramatically by November.

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I think the chances are remote that those who passionately oppose the Democrats health care bill will change their mind after the Democrats ignore their wishes. In fact I think it is reasonable to conclude they will be even angrier. Add to that Obama's screw ups on terrorism and closing Gitmo and the Democrats determination to push an immigration bill that many passionately oppose and I have to think at this point they are in serious trouble and only making matters worse while they still can.

Here is the NY Times analysis that is equally as grim.