Al Qaeda's retreat to Yemen

WSJ:

Al Qaeda's decentralized structure across the Middle East is proving one of its biggest advantages over American firepower.

U.S. and allied-government officials have claimed significant progress against al Qaeda in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iraq recently. But the group appears able to nimbly deploy forces to places where international military pressure isn't as concentrated or has eased, including most recently Yemen and Somalia, according to officials and analysts.

Arab intelligence officers say they have tracked foreign fighters allied with al Qaeda traveling from one Mideast battlefield to another -- in particular from Iraq to Yemen, and, over the summer, from Pakistan to Yemen.

High-profile plots -- like the Christmas Day attempted plane bombing in the U.S., linked by U.S. officials to al Qaeda's affiliate in Yemen -- can also boost regionwide recruitment efforts for local chapters, without much help from affiliates or from al Qaeda's global leadership.

The global network "moves to the weakest point," says Mustafa Alani, director of security and terrorism studies at the Dubai-based Gulf Research Center, a think tank. "In Yemen, they have found opportunity."

After almost a decade of concerted U.S. and allied offensives, al Qaeda's affiliate groups work with a high degree of autonomy. The global group's top leadership, Osama bin Laden, and his lieutenant, Ayman al-Zawahiri, are both believed by U.S. officials to be in Pakistan.

...

It is not like al Qaeda has any choice in the matter. They got their asses kicked in Iraq and they are getting a close and personal relationship with Hellfire missiles if they stick their nose out in Pakistan. Of course they are going to try to go somewhere else. If we start attacking them in Yemen they will try to find somewhere else to run.

They have to avoid all communication other than word of mouth or they will be found and killed or captured. They really have no choice but to operate with autonomy.

The bottom line is they are in Yemen because they have lost in their other venues. They will lose in Yemen to if we are permitted to attack them.

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