Why Obamacare is in trouble

Karl Rove:

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The polls are crumbling because of a flood of bad news about Mr. Obama’s health-care proposals. One batch of such news came from a July 17 study by the Lewin Group that was commissioned by the Heritage Foundation. It projects that if the House bill becomes law, 83.4 million people—nearly half of those with private coverage—will lose private insurance as employers drop their plans. Mr. Obama’s promise that you can keep your plan is being left on the cutting room floor with nary a peep from the president.

Another batch of bad news came this week as Democratic governors from Colorado, Tennessee, New Mexico and Washington joined GOP colleagues at the National Governors Association summer meeting to blast the administration for plans to shift millions of families into Medicaid. That could stick states with $440 billion in new costs over the next decade.

But the most damaging news came from Congressional Budget Office (CBO) Director Douglas Elmendorf, who said last week that the White House’s health-care proposals would not “reduce the trajectory of federal health spending by a significant amount.” This shattered the central claim Mr. Obama has been making: that his health-care plan controls costs. In a July 17 letter, Mr. Elmendorf added that the House’s health-care bill would result in a “net increase in the federal budget deficit of $239 billion” over 10 years. That’s likely a low-ball estimate because it assumes that Congress will increase taxes by $583 billion over the next decade.

Ways and Means Committee Chairman Charlie Rangel says he’ll pay for the Obama health proposal by raising taxes on Americans making $280,000 a year ($350,000 for couples). Most of those stuck with higher taxes will be small business owners. Even Democrats don’t like that approach: 21 of 39 freshmen House Democrats penned a letter opposing the tax hike. Many are among the 66 Democrats from districts that either Mr. Bush or John McCain carried in recent presidential elections. Mr. Obama shrugged off the letter by saying that the surtax would only force some to pay “a little bit more.”

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Team Obama was rushing to pass health care before the August recess out of fear that allowing members to go home for an extended spell before voting on the bill would give them an opportunity to hear from their constituents. They fear that the 300 protestors who showed up at a town hall meeting in Panama City, Fla. held June 30 by Democrat Rep. Allen Boyd shortly after he voted for the cap and trade energy tax) are only the start of a larger backlash.

Democratic leaders, including the president, are now backing away from a vote on health care before August. But that’s not likely to decrease voter angst. Americans for Prosperity and others are already organizing voters to attend public meetings with members of Congress this summer. My guess is that members of Congress are about to hear a lot from their voters on the government takeover of health care, new energy taxes, the failed stimulus, record deficits, and growing joblessness.

There is a lesson here for Democrats that they should have learned in 1994. Most voters really do not want the Democrats to run their health care. If 80 percent of voters are satisfied with their current health care they are unlikely to want to subsidize the 20 percent who are not. A significant number of the dissatisfied are non voting illegal immigrants. Tell me how many voters want to pay to encourage more illegals to come for free health care.