Bin Laden changes his strategy

James Robbins:

One frequently hears that terrorists are long-term strategists. They plan in terms of decades, if not centuries. Time is irrelevant to them. No matter what we do, they will have the upper hand, because they have an enduring cause, and the patience to stick with the game plan. It is the same thing we used to hear about the Soviets before their empire collapsed around them. Unless that was all according to plan too.

I have never given the bad guys any special credit for being long-term thinkers. They may talk about executing strategies over decades, but only because they must. Terrorists are weak by definition. If al Qaeda had land armies, air and naval fleets — not to mention nuclear weapons — they would use them. If they could get the job done quickly, they would. However, since they can't, they counsel patience to their followers, mount attacks when the opportunity arises, and allow us to make a virtue out of their necessity.

But the recent attempted suicide bombing at the massive Abqaiq oil-processing complex in Saudi Arabia shows that Osama bin Laden may be getting a little frustrated with the wait. He is deviating somewhat from his original plan, in which the Saudi oil industry was not to be touched so it would be intact when he took ownership. Now he would just as soon see the oil go up in flames if it speeds up the timetable.

Al Qaeda's initial strategy was laid out in their 1996 declaration of war, which I still consider must reading to understand the current conflict. But most of their plans were thrown out of kilter by our unexpectedly robust response to the 9/11 attacks. We acted forcefully, the hoped-for Muslim uprisings in defense of bin Laden did not take place, and al Qaeda was forced to go deep underground. Since then we have held the initiative and set the terms of the confrontation. Rather than methodically executing a long-term strategy, bin Laden has been forced to make it up as he goes.

This was very clearly demonstrated by the attempted oil-complex bombing. Granted, al Qaeda has always known that threatening the global oil supply is a very effective means of attacking the U.S. center of gravity, its economy. An enemy document captured in Afghanistan stated that oil is "the artery of life that provides the West and the Jews with the means of existence, and the oxygen for the Western industry that must be severed."

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There is more in this excellent analysis.