Harris doing worse than Biden in crucial state

 Red State:

The Democrats pushed Joe Biden to the side because of how badly he was doing in the polls and replaced him with Kamala Harris.

But there are a few things they don't seem to have factored into the equation when they made this move.

One is that Biden, for whatever it's worth, does have some favorability in Pennsylvania, the most critical state in this election, as "Scranton Joe." He was at one point viewed as moderate, which would be more appealing to the area. Meanwhile, San Francisco liberal Harris does not.

But there's another big factor that CNN's Harry Enten points out -- that she doesn't have the pull with the union households that Biden had either, Harris is 10 points off where Biden was:
"But, look at where Kamala Harris is today! She's only leading by nine points. That would be the worst Democratic performance in a generation. Ten points off the mark of Joe Biden." He noted how Joe's official numbers had him 19 points ahead in 2020, and that he had put himself out as "Union Joe."

That's not going to be good for her, particularly in the Rust Belt. I wrote about some of the trouble they were having there earlier, in Michigan, including with polling that Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) was warning them about.

If we look at what union members were telling MSNBC were their concerns -- jobs and illegal immigration -- you can see why they would more naturally gravitate to Trump, versus Harris. It's also why Trump might have more of a pull for members than a regular Republican out of central casting might.
...

Harris does not appear to have the same connection with union votes as past Democrats have had.  It is a voting block that is critical to Democrats and it looks like Trump is making some headway with them.  Voters as a whole are troubled by inflation which has raised the cost of goods from groceries to autos by as much as 20 percent.  There is also the fact that the world has become more dangerous since the Democrats took office with wars breaking out in Europe and the Middle East.  When Trump was in office the Abraham Accords settled some ancient conflict in the Middle East.

See also:

NEW: New Swing State Polling Brings More Good News for Trump, Big Warning for Harris

And:

 No, Kamala, World Leaders Are Not 'Laughing' at Trump

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