Democrats dramatically overestimate hospitalizations from Covid

 Hot Air:

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We’ve had more than 43 million confirmed cases in the U.S. Apparently, some people are operating on the assumption that 22 million people (or more!) have been hospitalized for COVID.

So Gallup polled the subject again this month, this time asking people what they thought the rate of hospitalization was for both the unvaccinated and the vaccinated populations. Gallup believes the correct answer is less than one percent of each group now ends up in the hospital. Have Americans, especially Democrats, gotten a better handle on the numbers since March?

They have not. Democrats’ caution about the virus continues to lead them to dramatically overshoot when guessing the percentage of unvaccinated people in the hospital. Call this a media failure, or the triumph of a partisan cultural dynamic that’s led liberals to counter Republican nonchalance about the virus with hypervigilance. Either way, these numbers are goofy....

It’s at least partly a media failure, as evidenced by the fact that “50% or higher” also draws the largest cohorts of Republicans and independents. Coverage of the fact that hospitals are overcrowded in COVID hot spots has led many Americans across the board to conclude that a majority of unvaxxed people who test positive end up needing medical care. They’re overestimating the share of vaxxed people who need care as well: “92% overstate the risk that unvaccinated people will be hospitalized, and 62% overstate the risk for vaccinated people.”

The many media reports about how successful the vaccines are in reducing one’s risk of hospitalization are also contributing to the misunderstanding, I suspect. When the average joe hears that you’re 95 percent less likely to land in the ER if you’ve had your shots, they may deduce that the rate of hospitalization among the unvaccinated must be extraordinarily high. But that’s a case of innumeracy at work: The “95 percent less likely” figure is a relative rate between the two groups. You’re very unlikely to need to go to the ER if you’re unvaccinated (especially if you’re younger) but very, very unlikely if you’re vaxxed.

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This may explain some of the paranoia about the virus especially on the part of Democrats.  The virus has been an effective cudgel for misleading attacks against Trump and Republicans and the media has done little to correct the view expressed by Democrats.