Iowa's plastic importance in selection process

Mark Halperin spends several paragraphs explaining why polls in Iowa are unreliable in gaging its own out come then adds:

Nevertheless, there is no question that Iowa's outcome will be hugely influential in determining the parties' nominees, even more so for the Democrats, whose Iowa winner will get a huge blast of momentum heading into subsequent contests. That is why the Register's numbers are causing such a ruckus.

On the Democratic side, given the poll's margin of error, the race remains a three-way contest, but the paper's front-page headline shows Clinton ahead with 29%, displacing Edwards, now at 23%, from the top spot. Obama is at 22%. The remaining candidates, including New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson and Delaware Sen. Joe Biden, are much lower in the ranking. Clinton, Edwards, and Obama have each been first at one time or another in recent polls and their strategists are resolutely cautious when evaluating their chances and respectful when appraising their rivals.

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However, the Register poll also reveals some candidate weaknesses. Clinton is still seen as polarizing. Voters have questions about Obama's experience. Edwards' expensive haircuts and hedge fund ties have muddied his image as a champion of the middle class. Given those problems and the intense competition in the state, it is unlikely that any candidate will be able to achieve a decisive lead before caucus day.

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There is nothing really new here. Clinton has always been polarizing and will continue to be if she is elected. There is a lot not to love about her for over half the people in this country. Edwards comes across to many as a phony trial lawyer who will say anything. Richardson has walked off the cliff on insuring a defeat in Iraq just as we are winning the war. Obama is a light weight in over his head.

All in all the Democrats have a really sorry field of candidates vying with each other for how to get out of Iraq rather than with defeat al Qaeda which has made Iraq the central front in the war. Most of this political movement is based on several lies Democrats have told themselves about Iraq and al Qaeda's operations in that country. They are all very convenient lies for people who lacked commitment for victory to begin with.

Finally, it is preposterous to have a small state like Iowa be handed the right to have the few of its citizens who show up at caucuses select the next president. That is why many of the more significant states in terms of population and industry are trying to get a more important role in the selection process. Candidates who focus on those more significant states are thee ones who soul be rewarded in the selection process. This year there is a chance that they will be.