The Giuliani paradox

Donald Lambro:

Two stunning but little-noticed political developments have turned the race for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination into a two-man sprint.

The first is that Rudy Giuliani is leading the GOP pack in South Carolina, a rock-ribbed conservative state where you would think a socially liberal Republican would not be doing that well.

The second is that while Giuliani remains the clear front-runner in all the national Republican voter polls, Mitt Romney, who trails in fourth place in the same surveys, is leading in the first four party-preference contests in January.

Both developments say a lot about the changes going on in the GOP these days and, perhaps, about the weakness of the party's conservative wing in the presidential-selection process.

Conservative-movement activists who cringe at the idea of Giuliani as the GOP's nominee have been unable to unite behind an alternative. They have talked up Fred Thompson. But the word at the grassroots is that the former television and movie actor has been something of a disappointment on the stump -- unprepared on the issues and a bit lazy, to boot.

Arizona Sen. John McCain, whom conservatives have never trusted, especially on social issues or tax policy, has been fading. All the others in the back of the pack are not considered serious candidates.

Two forces are propelling Giuliani's candidacy. First, the former mayor, who led New York City back from the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, has staked out national security as his major issue at a time when terrorism and the war in Iraq overwhelm just about everything else.

He is seen as a tough, take-charge leader who fully understands the stakes in the war on terrorism and looks and sounds like someone who knows how to keep our country safe and win the war at the same time.

That counts for a lot among the party faithful, especially in conservative places like South Carolina.

Second, he is seen as the only Republican who can defeat Sen. Hillary Clinton, perhaps the only political figure who would unite a fractious party in the 2008 general election.

...

Rudy can get voters in areas where President Bush could not, but he will also lose them in areas that were decisive to President Bush's victories. The exit polls for 2004 made clear that the "values" voters all went for President Bush. James Dobson is signaling that Giuliani will not get much of that vote. He would rather run a kamikaze campaign that would lead to the election of some one who would do a greater disservice to his values. a recent Washington Post ABC News poll also challenges Giuliani's claim to beating Sen. Clinton giving her an eight point lead. That poll is a significant change from previous polls that have shown Giuliani defeating Clinton in head to head competition for months. Someone will have to take a look at the internals to see if they have the democrat bias that many polls have.

If Dobson lives up to his pledge, Giuliani will need to pick up the votes of more moderates in order to overcome the loss of those who follow Dobson's lead. That is not out of the question, but it does add to his challenge. While I disagree with Rudy on some of the values issues, he is clearly better than any Democrat on those issues and it is just ridiculous to vote in such a way to insure a Democrat victory. Anyone who believes there is moral equivalence between the two needs to take another look at their morals.

Dobson may be writing off any influence he may have had on the Republican nomination process. Certainly, Fred Thompson is not impressed.

Rasmussen polling suggest that 27 percent of pro life Republicans would rather have Hillary than Rudy. Are they really that committed to pro life?