Rio Grande Valley voters could flip control of House

 Politico:

Former President Donald Trump's surge among Latinos and rural voters along Texas' southern border has given Republicans a surprise opening that could help decide control of the House of Representatives in 2022.

Democrats spent millions in 2020 in Texas’ suburbs, hoping to capitalize on anti-Trump fervor and grow their majority. But not only did that effort not yield any new Democrats in Congress, Democratic support also cratered in three traditionally deep-blue districts in the Rio Grande Valley. Now, House Republicans are eager to invest in the region for the first time in years.

In the danger zone are Reps. Vicente Gonzalez, Filemón Vela and Henry Cuellar, whose three adjoining districts stretch from the southern tip of the state up toward the San Antonio-Austin corridor. Hillary Clinton won them with margins between 17 and 22 points in 2016. But Joe Biden carried them all by just a few points in 2020 — the largest rightward swings of any Texas congressional districts.

“I think it was a wake-up call for everybody,” Cuellar said in an interview. The nine-term incumbent fared the best of the Democratic trio, winning nearly 60 percent of the vote, while Vela scraped 55 percent — the worst showing of his five terms — and Gonzalez barely got a majority. But Cuellar said the tight presidential race in his region was a sign the national party was not heeding warnings.

“Don't take border areas for granted. Don't take Hispanics for granted,” he said. “It's been done for so many years. The Democratic Party has not paid attention to the Hispanic population.”

The region — and the state — could very well decide control of the House in two years. Texas will gain as many as three congressional seats in redistricting, and it will be a critical part of Republican’s strategy to retake control of the chamber. The GOP is just six seats short of the majority, and any additions to the traditional battleground map are important with the House margins so low.

The looming redraw may boost GOP odds because state Republicans control the process. Republicans are already discussing how a new map could create two deep-red districts in the southern half of the state, one shoring up freshman Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas) to the west and another imperiling one of the three Rio Grande Valley Democrats.

Now, both parties are scrambling to determine whether Republicans’ surprising appeal in the region in 2020 will endure when Trump is no longer on the ballot or in office. Democrats are betting the answer is no.
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It is true that Trump did a good job in appealing to Hispanic voters.  One of the mistakes the Democrats made was assuming these Hispanic Americans would side with illegal immigrants.  Hispanics in Texas are on the whole, not immigrants.  They are native to Texas and their forefathers fought with Anglos against Santa Anna and Mexico for Texas independence.  They are hard-working people many of whom work in the oil and gas jobs that Biden is killing.  Some are entrepreneurs and many run the restaurants that Democrats have been trying to shutdown in the fight against Covid.