Coronavirus models overstate number of hospitalizations resulting from plague

Red States:
Sean Davis, co-founder of The Federalist, took a serious look at the IHME (Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation) Coronavirus model and called it “garbage.” Davis makes his case through a series of tweets (below).

Davis found that the actual numbers of hospitalizations on April 1 were a fraction of the numbers projected by the IHME model. The problem with the model, he discovered, is that it uses New York and New Jersey data and applies it to the rest of the states.

The actual numbers range from a low of 9% in Tennessee of the projection to a high of 50% in Virginia. Here are some examples:

The model projected that over 121,000 people would be hospitalized in the country yesterday. The actual number was 31,142. (25.7%)

Texas: Projection – 1,716; Actual – 196 (11.4%)

Georgia: Projection – 2,777; Actual – 952 (34.3%)

Virginia: Projection – 607; Actual – 305 (50%)

Tennessee: Projection – 2,214; Actual number – 200 (9%)

New York: Projection – 50,962; Actual number – 18,368 (36%)

Davis writes that if we’re going to shut down the entire nation’s economy to “flatten the curve” based on the projections of a single model, it shouldn’t be too much to ask that the model approximate reality when it comes to hospitalizations.
...
When projections are not met it is because underlying assumptions were invalid.  That is axiomatic.  Those who made the projections could argue that the mitigation ordered by the President was more effective than they expected, but if that is the case it also makes the case for not extending them.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Should Republicans go ahead and add Supreme Court Justices to head off Democrats

29 % of companies say they are unlikely to keep insurance after Obamacare

Bin Laden's concern about Zarqawi's remains