Russia cannot afford its next generation weapons programs

Scout.com:
For several years now, Moscow has been trumpeting its development of sophisticated next-generation weapon systems that finally put the superiority of Western counterparts into question. And much of the new hardware appear to have NATO militaries worried.

If you believe Russian state media, hordes of new super weapons are just around the corner, always just a few years away from becoming operational. Then reality—in the form of defense budgets—sets in.

The new T-14 Armata tank was unveiled to much fanfare in 2015 boasting promising new features [3] including an unmanned turret, dense multilayered armor, a more powerful 125mm main gun, and a revolutionary active protection system [4]. And any number of articles would inform you [5] that 2,300 T-14s would be built by the year 2020, so NATO tankers beware!

However, British defense analysis estimated that Russia was unlikely [6] to produce more than 120 T-14s per year. In fact, that estimate proved too generous. In August 2017 the deputy defense minister announced [7]that 100 T-14s would be produced by 2020. So that initial announcement was slightly off by a factor of 23.

There is also the T-15 heavy Infantry Fighting Vehicle (IFV) [8] based on the Armata chassis, which would potentially become the most well-protected armored personnel carrier in service.

But one little detail—so far, none have been ordered for production.

What about the PAK-FA T-50 stealth fighter, now designated the Su-57? This supermaneuverable stealth jet [9] promised to bring the Russian Air Force (the VVS) a deadly fifth-generation air superiority fighter—and it is now scheduled for delivery in 2018 or 2019 [10].

Specifically, twelve of them will be delivered. The technology for a fully-capable PAK FA simply won’t be ready until the 2020s once upgraded Saturn turbofans are ready. The aircraft entering service will make do with inferior AL-41 engines that produce insufficient thrust.

A dozen stealth fighters will not turn the tide in an air war with NATO, though they could have their uses, perhaps serving as sneaky hitmen targeting vulnerable backfield tanker and AWACS support aircraft. On the other hand, the Su-57 is not ideal for deep penetration raids over hostile territory because its rear aspect is not especially stealthy.

These projects will at least result in the production of real hardware that will enter service in a few years, albeit in numbers too small to really affect the military balance. But then there is a whole slew of other programs that, despite extravagant boasting on international outlets, so far exist as prototypes or even just design documents and schematics.
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The Russians are having the same problem with their ship building plans.  While sanctions have had an effect on the Russian economy, the most direct cause of this slowdown in defense production has been the drop in the price of oil caused by the US shale oil and gas revolution.  It is an energy revolution that happened despite the Obama administrations anti-energy policies.

The drop in the price of oil has caused teh Russians to burn through their cash reserves as they try to keep even this minimal weapons programs on the books.  The Russians are not the only ones feeling the effects of the drop in the price of oil.  OPEC countries have also been burning through their cash reserves.

It is somewhat ironic that US Democrats who have been engaged in a Russian scare operation since the election were the ones who did the most for the Russian economy for years by their anti-energy policies in the US.  I am a little surprised that President Trump has not pointed this out.

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