The faulty models that triggered the demand for a shutdown of US economy

Brandon Morris:
When it comes to projections, the most sensational gets the most airtime thanks to the “if it bleeds it leads” philosophy the media has.

In fact, it wasn’t that long ago that The Hill was publishing models from the CDC that 160 to 210 million were going to contract the disease, putting the death count at some 200,000. The Imperial College, wich many models are based on, came out with their own that claimed 2.2 million Americans would die if the virus was left to spread. Our own administration has been using that model to plan our strategies.

It was an easy model to believe, given the number of unknowns around the virus at the time. However, the venerated Dr. Anthony Fauci is now warning us that believing models isn’t wise.

According to the Daily Wire, Fauci believes that relying on models is dicey due to the fact that there are a plethora of variables that affect outcomes:

During a recent task force meeting, Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and one of the team’s leading voices, called into question modeling projections in general, according to the Post’s sources.

“I’ve looked at all the models. I’ve spent a lot of time on the models. They don’t tell you anything. You can’t really rely upon models,” Dr. Fauci told other task force members this week, according to two officials with direct knowledge of the exchange.

We still don’t have any solid numbers as to how deadly the Wuhan Coronavirus will be for the United States but we do have clues. Those with better healthcare systems and higher preparedness have faired well against the virus. South Korea’s mortality rate currently sits at 0.6 percent. As the United States has a superior healthcare system and we took measures early on to make sure more of the virus wasn’t imported by shutting down our borders to various countries, we are positioned to have similar numbers to South Korea.
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We need to start planning now for the reopening of the US economy and putting people back to work.  If the number of casualties estimated is so out of whack, the "cure" does like it is worse than the disease.

BTW, when Dr. Fauci talks about "so many variables" he is really saying that the underlying assumptions are proving to be invalid.

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